Bakken Crude Holds Near $87 as Market Uncertainty Mounts

Oil prices held steady on Sunday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading at $90.54 per barrel and Brent crude at $93.09, according to live market data. The price for Bakken crude, adjusted for its regional differential, stands near $87.12 per barrel.

The market's stability belies extreme underlying volatility and uncertainty, driven by a prolonged war in the Middle East that has severely constricted global oil flows. According to a survey cited by Rigzone, the conflict between a U.S.-Israeli alliance and Iran has caused OPEC output to plunge further, taking a heavy toll on supplies.

A critical factor obscuring the true state of the market is a surge in "dark" tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. An analysis by OilPrice.com, citing data from Vortexa, shows that tanker traffic through the critical chokepoint has collapsed by 90% to 95% compared to pre-war levels. Of the vessels that do transit, 57% are now moving with their transponders switched off, a practice that peaked at 65.2% in May.

This tactic, once used primarily by Iran-linked vessels to skirt sanctions, has become the norm for most commercial traffic. "AIS-off movements through Hormuz are no longer only a sanctions-evasion signal. They have become a wider commercial response to conflict risk," said Claire Jungman, Director of Maritime Risk & Intelligence at Vortexa. The result is that the market is "flying blind," with real-time tracking of oil shipments becoming exceedingly difficult.

The implication for Bakken operators is a market supported by geopolitical risk premiums but fraught with unpredictable swings. The current Bakken differential of -$3.42 versus WTI reflects the cost to move North Dakota crude to major refining hubs. While steady prices near $90 WTI provide a profitable environment for most Bakken wells, the lack of market transparency increases the risk of sudden price corrections if supply routes are clarified or demand signals are misinterpreted.

The dark transits are complicating assessments of global inventories, refinery supply, and destination-level demand, particularly in Asia where remaining cargoes are headed. Initially, analysts predicted the Hormuz conflict would be resolved by May, with traffic normalizing in June. Instead, the situation has grown more opaque, leaving the market to guess at the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations.

For North Dakota producers, the sustained high prices driven by Middle East supply disruptions help offset broader economic concerns. However, the extreme volatility and reduced market visibility mean hedging and marketing strategies require increased caution. The stability seen in Sunday's flat pricing is likely a pause, with significant movement contingent on developments in the Persian Gulf that are increasingly difficult to track.