Bakken Crude Slides as WTI, Brent Tumble on U.S.-Iran Deal Bets

North Dakota crude prices came under sharp pressure Wednesday, with WTI sliding $7.13, or 7.42%, to $88.96 per barrel and Brent dropping $8.52, or 8.22%, to $95.08, according to live market data. The Bakken differential was quoted at minus $3.42 against WTI, putting Bakken barrels around $85.54. Natural gas rose modestly to $2.96 per million British thermal units, up $0.06.

The move came as oil traders increasingly priced the possibility of a U.S.-Iran settlement, according to OilPrice.com. Earlier in the session, OilPrice.com reported Brent had fallen to $100.60 and WTI to $93.23, before live data showed deeper declines.

President Trump told the Financial Times that Washington has no immediate plans to strike Iran, saying, “We seem to be getting everything we want.” Vice President JD Vance said Monday that the two sides had “certainly made some progress.” A senior Iranian official said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets demands including lifting oil sanctions and releasing frozen assets, OilPrice.com reported.

Escalation headlines did not sustain the earlier rally. Trump also told Fox News that a “heavy hit” on Iran was possible, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed four tankers were destroyed by mines south of Hormuz, a claim that has not been independently confirmed. ING said markets have increasingly priced in further hostilities, while traders also weighed the prospect of easing Middle East supply risks.

The broader backdrop also turned bearish. JPMorgan estimated the global oil market surplus at 1.4 million barrels per day in October, up from 1.1 million barrels per day in September, according to OilPrice.com. The bank said Middle East exports had recovered to about 20.7 million barrels per day from a March low of 9.8 million, while demand had fallen 3.3 million barrels per day since the war began. Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova said profit-taking and reduced speculative long positions were justified after October’s rally.

The selling overrode a 5.27 million-barrel U.S. crude draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute against an expected build, which OilPrice.com described as another sign that U.S. inventories remain in freefall. The EIA was scheduled to release official figures at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Political developments also factored into the market. Democrats won both houses of Congress in Tuesday’s midterms, and analysts said the result could constrain war funding. Kpler’s Michelle Brouhard noted that the new Congress is not seated until January 3, leaving the administration nearly two months to act.

For Bakken operators, the immediate effect is a lower realized crude price. WTI and Brent declines reduce the benchmark value against which Williston Basin barrels are priced, while the minus $3.42 differential keeps Bakken crude trading below the U.S. benchmark. Natural gas’s $0.06 rise was small compared with the crude losses, leaving producers exposed to the sharper decline in oil prices.

For royalty owners, the combination of weaker crude benchmarks, a discounted Bakken differential and signs of a larger global surplus could pressure revenue if the price move persists. The session underscored how quickly Bakken cash flows can be exposed to geopolitical headlines, supply forecasts and speculative positioning.