Bakken Production Steady in Feb; Iran War's Price, Budget Impacts Unclear
State reports stable output as volatility from conflict, Strait of Hormuz closure is not yet reflected in lagged data; operators hold to 2026 budgets.
BISMARCK — More than 50 days into the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran, the full impact on North Dakota oil production and the state’s budget remains to be seen, state oil experts said Tuesday, according to the Grand Forks Herald.
The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources held its monthly Director’s Cut briefing on April 21. Director Nathan Anderson noted the state's oil and gas data lags by two months, so the most recent figures from February do not yet reflect the wild price swings caused by the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which began on Feb. 28.
“This is largely dominated by the word volatility. That's the way I would describe pricing over the last 50 days,” Anderson said, according to the report.
In February, North Dakota wells produced 31.6 million barrels of oil, averaging 1.129 million barrels per day. This was slightly above January’s daily rate of 1.125 million barrels from 34.8 million total barrels. The state budget was built on a forecast of 1.15 million barrels per day, putting February's production 1.76% below that revenue forecast.
On pricing, West Texas Intermediate crude was at $87 a barrel during the briefing. However, the state budget is based on $59 a barrel, and February’s average price was $57.54—a 2.1% shortfall. Anderson indicated that price number "should increase substantially" in next month's data, which will begin to capture war-related volatility.
The number of producing oil wells in the state increased by 171 from January to February, with most additions aimed at optimizing existing production, Anderson said. The rig count is not expected to change much in the near term because operators finalized their 2026 capital budgets before the conflict. “Those operators promised the market that they were going to do a certain amount of activity... and no more,” he said, though one operator indicated it would add a rig in July.
The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty was underscored by a separate Rigzone report stating that U.S.-Iran talks have hit an impasse as a ceasefire nears expiry, with the sides deadlocked on issues including access to the Strait of Hormuz. The strait's closure has been a key driver of recent oil price volatility.
In a sign that could eventually impact Bakken activity, oilfield services giant Halliburton Co. said it sees signs of a resurgence in oilfield activity in North America, Rigzone reported separately.
North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing state behind Texas and New Mexico, relies heavily on tax revenues from oil and gas to fund state infrastructure and projects. The full fiscal impact of the war-induced price swings on the state budget is still unknown.
Source
Grand Forks Herald, Rigzone
