Bakken Rig Count Holds at 23 as Oil Prices Signal Production Support

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held steady at 23 on Friday, May 8, 2026, as robust oil prices provided a supportive backdrop for Bakken shale production. The stability in the rig count, a key leading indicator for future output, suggests operators are maintaining a measured pace of development.

Front-month WTI crude oil futures traded at $95.89 per barrel, up $1.08 or 1.14% on the day. The global benchmark, Brent crude, was at $101.73, a gain of $1.67. Bakken crude at the wellhead traded at a discount of $3.42 per barrel to WTI, putting its price at approximately $92.47. Natural gas prices were reported at $2.80 per MMBtu.

The current rig count of 23 provides a snapshot of near-term drilling activity. Historically, the number of active rigs in North Dakota has correlated closely with production trends several months later, as new wells are drilled, completed, and brought online. A stable rig count typically suggests that operators are sustaining, but not aggressively expanding, their drilling programs.

The sustained oil price environment above $90 per barrel for WTI is seen as economically supportive for Bakken producers. At these price levels, many operators can generate sufficient returns to justify continued development drilling in the core areas of the play. The current rig activity likely focuses on high-graded locations to maintain production from the formation, which is North Dakota's primary oil-producing region.

The Bakken differential, the discount at which local crude trades compared to the U.S. benchmark, is a critical factor for operator revenues. A narrower discount generally improves netbacks for producers. The current differential of -$3.42 is within a range that has been typical for the play, reflecting regional pipeline and rail takeaway capacity.

The combination of a steady rig count and strong crude prices points to a stable near-term production outlook for the state. Barring a significant shift in commodity prices or operator strategy, production levels are likely to be sustained near current volumes as new wells from the existing rig fleet offset natural decline rates from older wells.