China's Oil Import Pause Could End, Impacting Bakken Crude Markets

A sharp reduction in China's crude oil imports, driven by high prices from the Middle East conflict, is expected to be temporary, according to analysis from Kpler reported by OilPrice.com. This eventual rebound could tighten global markets, impacting the price environment for Bakken crude.

China's crude imports are estimated at 6.78 million barrels per day this month, which would be the lowest monthly figure in nearly ten years and a sharp drop from April’s 8.5 million barrels daily, Kpler senior crude oil analyst Muyu Xu reported. For context, China’s average daily oil import rate last year was 10.66 million barrels. The current low import level suggests Chinese refiners are drawing on strategic inventories to maintain refinery runs averaging 13.5 million barrels daily, according to Kpler.

Despite the import pause, demand for oil products in China remains resilient. OilPrice.com reports that China's government is unlikely to let its oil in storage—estimated earlier at 1.2 to 1.3 billion barrels—fall to dangerously low levels, meaning imports will eventually rebound. Such a resurgence in buying from the world's top crude importer would place upward pressure on global benchmarks like WTI, to which Bakken crude is linked.

Meanwhile, the global natural gas market is experiencing a surge in U.S. exports due to the same Middle East conflict. OilPrice.com reports that coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz since late February, stripping roughly 20% of global LNG supply from the market since early March. U.S. LNG exports to Asia jumped sharply in April, with nearly a quarter of all American cargoes heading to the region. This boom is backed by an estimated $100 billion in private investment pouring into U.S. liquefaction plants and terminals.

This increased global gas demand strengthens the market for associated natural gas produced alongside oil in the Bakken formation. Furthermore, Rigzone reported on May 31 that Japanese trading house Mitsui is looking to invest in LNG projects in the U.S., among other regions, citing data centers as a key driver of power demand. This underscores the long-term international interest in U.S. gas infrastructure.

For North Dakota operators, the dual dynamics of a potential crude market tightening from resumed Chinese buying and a robust LNG export market present a supportive price outlook for both hydrocarbons. However, OilPrice.com notes that the crisis-driven demand may accelerate a global shift toward energy independence, with countries prioritizing supply diversification and strategic reserves, a trend that could shape long-term demand.