Global Energy Shifts Impact Markets, Colombia's Election Looms Large

Brent crude oil settled at a six-week low Friday as traders bet on a potential reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing truce negotiations, according to Rigzone. The price decline reflects shifting global risk premiums that can influence the pricing environment for Bakken crude.

Meanwhile, Colombia's pivotal 2026 presidential election is generating concern for its oil industry, which faces a sharp production decline due to current government policies, OilPrice.com reported. Under left-wing President Gustavo Petro, elected in 2022, Colombia banned new exploration contracts, raised taxes, and attempted to outlaw hydraulic fracturing. Data from Colombia's National Hydrocarbon Agency (ANH) shows oil output in March 2026 was 740,497 barrels per day, well below the 917,210 barrels per day produced a decade earlier.

The policy-driven decline is also hitting natural gas, Colombia's single largest export which earned $12.5 billion in 2025. ANH data shows March 2026 gas output of 700 million cubic feet per day is at decades-low levels, forcing the country to rely on imports for over a fifth of its consumption. There are fears that Ivan Cepeda, the continuation candidate for Petro's Pacto Historico, will maintain these policies, though he has called for a "gradual transition" at a recent campaign rally.

In the Caucasus, secretive energy deals between Georgia and Azerbaijan are raising security concerns, OilPrice.com reported in a separate article. Agreements signed in mid-May include a 20-year extension to a gas-purchase deal and a framework for electricity supply, but the full texts remain undisclosed. The deals come as Georgia's energy dependency shifts; in 2025, gas imports from Russia surged by roughly 23% while purchases from Azerbaijan fell by around 6%.

Economist Roman Gotsiridze argued the new agreement runs counter to Georgia's interest, suggesting the country may have "given up its share of transit capacity" in a key pipeline to Azerbaijan for 20 years. The Georgian government maintains the deal guarantees social gas supply security.

For Bakken operators, these global developments highlight the intersection of geopolitics, energy policy, and market sentiment. A sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could pressure global benchmarks, while the situation in Colombia serves as a case study in how swift policy changes can crater hydrocarbon output and state revenues. The evolving supply dynamics in the Caucasus further illustrate the complex trade-offs between energy security and dependency.