Global Gas Crunch, OPEC+ Talks Frame Complex Market for Bakken

A global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply crunch is making Europe's remaining coal-fired power plants profitable again, a market shift with indirect implications for global energy balances and the oil-weighted Bakken formation. According to a report from OilPrice.com, the profitability for generating electricity from lignite in Germany has jumped to as much as $72 per megawatt-hour this month, compared to zero a year ago.

The shift is driven by soaring gas supply costs and the need for conventional generation to stabilize power grids. With LNG supply struggling to move out of the Strait of Hormuz, European gas prices are at their highest level since the 2022-2023 crisis. This has slowed the structural decline of coal demand in key nations like Germany and Poland, where spare coal capacity remains.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its Coal Mid-Year Update 2026 cited by OilPrice.com, now expects total annual coal demand in Europe to reach 276 million tons in 2026, a smaller decline than previously forecast. "Higher gas prices have reduced the expected decline in countries, such as Germany and Poland, where gas generation and spare coal capacity remains available," the agency noted. The IEA also warned that cold spells this winter, following the war in Iran, could temporarily increase European coal use further.

For Bakken operators, this resurgence of coal highlights the ongoing volatility and tightness in global gas markets, which can influence broader energy investment and pricing sentiment. While North Dakota's production is primarily crude oil, associated gas production is a significant consideration. A prolonged global gas crunch could support wider energy complex prices, but also reflects a market under stress from geopolitical events.

In related market-moving developments, OPEC+ ministers met on the sidelines of a Saudi conference, according to a separate report from Rigzone. A statement posted on OPEC's website said, "The Ministers reviewed market conditions." No further details on output policy were provided.

This high-level review comes as the oil market absorbs shocks from the Iran conflict and evolving demand signals. A separate Rigzone summary noted that analytics firm GlobalData offered its view on the timeline for peak global gas demand this week, though no specifics were provided in the source.

For the Bakken, the OPEC+ coalition's ongoing management of supply remains a critical factor for crude oil price fundamentals. Any decisions stemming from their review of conditions will directly impact the revenue environment for North Dakota producers and royalty owners. The confluence of a tight gas market supporting coal and ongoing coordinated oil supply management creates a complex but potentially supportive backdrop for Williston Basin hydrocarbons.