Global Shipping Chaos, New Sanctions Law Reshape Bakken Export Outlook

Global shipping disruptions stemming from the Middle East crisis are driving record transit costs at key canals, adding complexity and expense to Bakken crude exports. Meanwhile, new U.S. legislation could impose tariffs on nations buying Russian oil and gas, a move with implications for global energy competition.

According to OilPrice.com, traffic and fees at the Panama and Suez Canals have jumped this year due to rerouted trade from disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. This has hiked crude and petroleum products crossings at the Panama Canal as Asia seeks U.S. supply not trapped in the Middle East. The cost to secure a passage has exploded, with some vessel operators paying $4-5 million in an auction for a single Panama Canal slot. South Korea’s SK Gas reportedly paid $5.3 million for a September 1 passage.

The Panama Canal Authority has also capped daily transits due to drought, reducing vessel slots. The median auction price for a slot was around $55,000 before the Iran conflict began in February, according to OilPrice.com. By August, average bids were 16 times higher than a year ago, above $1 million. Waiting times for unbooked vessels have ballooned to 17 days from just 2 days in February. These soaring logistics costs present a headwind for Bakken crude competing in global markets, particularly in Asia.

Separately, the U.S. Congress has passed a bill granting President Donald Trump new powers to impose tariffs on countries that purchase Russian petroleum products, Rigzone reported. The bill, passed on September 16 and likely to be signed, aims to disrupt Russia's energy revenue.

This legislation could directly impact nations like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which are increasing reliance on Russian gas. OilPrice.com reported Kazakhstan expects Russian gas deliveries to rise to 11 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2026 from about 4 bcm in 2025, with talks for 9 bcm in 2027. Uzbekistan, facing declining production, also imports Russian gas. The new U.S. law enables punitive tariffs on any nation purchasing Russian energy and could expose entities in these states to secondary sanctions.

For the Bakken, this geopolitical pressure on Russian energy buyers could tighten global supply dynamics and support prices if alternative sources like U.S. crude are sought. However, the concurrent surge in global shipping costs complicates the economics of delivering that crude. The combined effect creates a volatile trade environment where Bakken operators must navigate both premium pricing opportunities and significantly higher export logistics expenses.