Guyana Supply, Hormuz Risk Shape Bakken Outlook

For Bakken operators and royalty owners, this week’s global energy headlines show North Dakota oil remains exposed to distant supply disruptions and new production growth.

According to OilPrice.com, tight global oil supplies, compounded by fears of further U.S. strikes against Iran, are stoking concerns over a potential oil price super-spike. The report said global petroleum inventories are shrinking while U.S. fuel prices have surged to historic highs, fueling inflation.

Guyana’s expansion is one factor easing that pressure. OilPrice.com reported that by the end of August 2026, Guyana was lifting 908,000 barrels per day, making it South America’s third-largest oil producer. Production is on track to exceed 1 million barrels per day before the end of December 2026, seven years after first pumping oil in December 2019.

The growth is centered on the Stabroek Block, where ExxonMobil operates with a 45% working interest alongside Chevron at 30% and CNOOC at 25%. According to OilPrice.com, the block has more than 35 discoveries and 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent in recoverable resources, helping make Guyana a major non-OPEC producer.

OilPrice.com reported four operational floating production, storage and offloading vessels are active in the Stabroek Block. The Errea Wittu arrived in Guyana at the end of August 2026 and is slated to come online at the $12.7 billion Uaru project before the end of this year, adding 250,000 barrels per day and lifting Guyana’s output to potentially 1.2 million barrels per day.

Middle East risk remains a swing factor. According to OilPrice.com, Iran’s parliament this week exempted India, China, Iraq and Qatar from oil transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil supplies. Ahmad Hayat-Moghaddam, vice chairman of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told the Iranian Student’s News Agency, via Associated Press, that ships from those countries pass freely. He said India’s exemption facilitates medicine imports and China’s aims to secure political backing.

OilPrice.com said Iranian export flows are struggling under a many months-long U.S. naval blockade of Iran’s ports. The report noted October saw a record number of attacks on commercial vessels by Iran, though the near-daily pace appears to have slowed. It said President Trump has held off on prior threats to resume a major bombing campaign after midterm elections, while Democratic gains might make renewed major war a more distant possibility.

Europe’s gas stance is another global variable. OilPrice.com reported EU diplomats told EUobserver the bloc neither wants nor plans to resume purchases of Russian gas. “We don’t see any rationale at the moment to ease sanctions or restrictions on Russia, in any sector,” an EU diplomat said. The report cited the Wall Street Journal as saying the United States has discussed with Russia the possibility of restoring natural gas flows to Europe via pipelines through Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said those plans are “impossible to implement right now,” according to OilPrice.com.

On Thursday, Ukraine, the EU and U.S. officials are discussing security guarantees, according to OilPrice.com. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after a call with U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that negotiations must move “at full throttle.” U.S.-led Ukraine-Russia talks are scheduled to start Nov. 10 in Abu Dhabi.

For North Dakota, the sources show a global crude market in which Guyana’s rapid non-OPEC growth helps mitigate supply constraints, while Hormuz transit restrictions, European gas policy and Ukraine-related negotiations keep energy flows and price risk volatile.