Oil Near $100 Seen as Base Case for 2026; Global News Impacts Bakken Outlook

Oil prices are increasingly expected to remain near $100 a barrel through the next year, according to a Rigzone report from May 21. This price level is seen by market participants as a base case for 2026. For Bakken operators, sustained prices at this threshold provide a stable, high-revenue environment that supports ongoing drilling programs and well completion activity in North Dakota's premier oil field.

In international operator news, Equinor and Aker BP have agreed to a stakes swap in the North Sea and Barents Sea, Rigzone reported on May 22. The companies stated they will seek alignment on key areas of joint interest on the Norwegian continental shelf, aiming to speed up resource development to uphold high production levels and unlock value. While this deal is offshore Norway, it reflects a global industry trend of portfolio optimization to maximize efficiency and output, a strategy also employed by Bakken-focused producers.

Geopolitical developments affecting global oil flows are also in focus. Japan has flagged the impending arrival of the first oil tanker to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran war began, according to a separate Rigzone report from May 22. As one of Asia's biggest energy importers from the Middle East, Japan's receipt of this Persian Gulf shipment is a significant marker for the resumption of flows through this critical chokepoint.

Any sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would increase global supply availability, potentially applying downward pressure on the international benchmark prices to which Bakken crude is linked. However, the prevailing market expectation for oil near $100 suggests underlying tightness and demand may continue to support strong wellhead economics in the Williston Basin, balancing any incremental supply from resumed Middle East shipments.