Oil Prices Edge Higher as EIA Boosts 2026 Outlook

Front-month oil futures posted small gains in Wednesday trading, with the U.S. benchmark holding above $91 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery settled at $91.40, a rise of $0.12 or 0.13 percent. The global benchmark, Brent crude, settled at $94.94, up $0.15 or 0.16 percent, according to live price data.

The incremental gains came alongside a significant upward revision to the official U.S. price forecast. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its 2026 Brent crude oil price projection in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published April 15. The agency now sees Brent averaging $96 per barrel for the year, according to Rigzone.

This strengthened long-term outlook from a key government agency provides a firmer planning foundation for Bakken operators considering multi-year drilling budgets and development plans. A sustained price environment in the mid-$90s for Brent, which typically trades at a premium to WTI, supports economic drilling in North Dakota's core operating areas.

However, analysts are flagging potential near-term headwinds that could cap rallies. In a separate note reported by Rigzone, SEB Commodities Analyst Ole R. Hvalbye issued an oil market warning despite noting some "peace momentum" in geopolitical conflicts. The analyst's caution suggests that traders are weighing positive demand signals against risks of increased supply or weakening economic data.

Natural gas prices also saw a slight uptick, with the front-month contract rising by one cent to settle at $2.61 per MMBtu. The Bakken price differential versus WTI was not available in the live data set.

For Bakken producers, the current price structure remains constructive. WTI above $91 per barrel, combined with a supportive federal price forecast, continues to enable profitable operations and cash flow generation. The stability near multi-month highs allows companies to maintain current production levels and execute planned capital programs with greater confidence.

The EIA's revised outlook signals an expectation of continued tight market balances, potentially driven by ongoing OPEC+ production restraint and solid global demand growth. This macro backdrop is critical for the Williston Basin, as it underpins the investment needed to sustain North Dakota's output above 1.2 million barrels per day.

Market participants will now look to weekly U.S. inventory data from the EIA for the next catalyst. Any significant deviation from expected draws in crude or fuel stocks could test the current price resilience.