Oil Prices Hold Steady as Analyst Sets $75 Long-Term Target

Oil prices showed minimal movement in Thursday trading, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude holding near $88.75 per barrel, according to live price data. Brent crude traded at $92.69. The Bakken crude differential was reported at $-3.42 versus WTI.

The steady trading follows a forecast from Macquarie strategists predicting a week-on-week drop in U.S. crude inventories for the period ending May 22, as reported by Rigzone.

A new analysis from Bernstein Research provides longer-term context, setting a $75 per barrel price as a reasonable long-term target for equity valuations. According to a survey detailed by OilPrice.com, Bernstein analyst Neil Beveridge pointed to rising marginal costs and declining reserves as key factors. The global marginal cost of oil is now projected to climb to $77 per barrel.

The survey of the 50 largest energy companies revealed the industry's average reserve life has fallen to a 20-year low of 10.4 years, significantly below the historical average of 13 years. Bernstein notes this lack of long-term supply buffer offers a structurally bullish floor for crude prices.

For Bakken operators, the current price environment remains highly profitable. Bernstein's survey underscored that the average net income breakeven for major producers sits at $50 per barrel, well below current prices. Global unit production costs have declined 5% to $35 per barrel of oil equivalent.

However, the industry's reinvestment ratio has climbed to 61% but remains well below the historical 80% to 90% average, according to the analysis. This cautious outlook on long-term demand, driven in part by the clean energy transition, means less cash is being reinvested into new exploration and production. Bernstein suggests this lower reinvestment rate combined with shrinking reserve life could create periods of market tightness and higher spot prices.

The clean energy transition, with the International Energy Agency reporting global electric car sales grew to 20.7 million units in 2025, is a factor in long-term demand outlooks. The IEA has projected EVs will displace more than 5 million barrels of oil consumption per day by 2030.

For North Dakota producers, the narrow Bakken differential and prices significantly above breakeven costs support continued operations and cash flow. The structural factors highlighted by Bernstein—rising costs and shorter reserve life—point to a sustained price floor that benefits basin economics even as long-term industry reinvestment trends remain cautious.