Oil Prices Retreat on Monday Amid OPEC+ Uncertainty, Bakken Differential Widens

Oil prices declined in midday trading on Monday, May 31, 2026, with both major benchmarks shedding over 1.7%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $87.36 per barrel, down $1.54 for the session. Brent crude fell $1.58 to $91.12 per barrel.

The price slide comes ahead of a critical OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this coming weekend. According to Reuters, traders are focused on whether the producer group will extend its current output cuts into the second half of the year. The potential for a policy shift is creating market uncertainty and downward pressure on prices.

For Bakken operators, the local price benchmark also weakened. The Bakken differential—the discount at which Bakken crude trades versus WTI—widened to negative $3.42 per barrel. This means Bakken crude is priced at approximately $83.94 per barrel after accounting for the differential. The widening discount can impact netbacks for North Dakota producers, especially those with higher transportation costs.

Natural gas prices held steady, with the front-month contract unchanged at $3.29 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The flat trading suggests a balanced market for natural gas, which is a significant associated product from Bakken oil wells.

The broader market sentiment is one of caution. A separate Reuters analysis noted that the market is grappling with mixed signals: ongoing geopolitical tensions provide a floor for prices, while concerns about global economic growth and future OPEC+ supply decisions act as a ceiling. The upcoming meeting is the primary focus for price direction this week.

For North Dakota's oil industry, the current price environment remains profitable for most operators, with WTI above $85. However, the wider Bakken differential directly reduces revenue per barrel sold. Operators will be watching the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting closely, as a decision to maintain or deepen cuts could provide support to global benchmarks, while any move toward increasing supply could extend the current price decline.

Market participants are also monitoring U.S. inventory data due later this week for further signals on supply and demand balance. For now, the prevailing driver is the anticipation surrounding the producer group's next move.