Oil Prices Rise Amid Geopolitical Tensions, U.S. Rig Count Edges Up

Oil prices climbed on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settling at $84.55 per barrel, a gain of $0.96 or 1.15%, according to live price data. The global benchmark Brent crude rose 1.22% to $90.12. The price for Bakken crude at the wellhead was trading at a differential of $-3.42 versus WTI.

The price increase comes as the market assesses the potential impact of a reported attack on Saudi Aramco's critical Abqaiq oil-processing facility earlier this week. According to an analysis from OilPrice.com, satellite imagery suggests the attack reached areas associated with crude processing, raising concerns about potential disruptions to the facility that stabilizes more than seven million barrels per day for export. However, the lack of an official damage assessment from Saudi authorities and no immediate reports of export interruptions have so far restrained a more dramatic price spike.

Supporting prices was a substantial drawdown in U.S. commercial crude inventories. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending July 24 showed stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell to 404.5 million barrels, a drop of more than 7 million barrels from the prior week.

Domestic drilling activity showed slight gains. Baker Hughes reported the total U.S. rig count rose to 588 this week, which is 48 more than this time last year. The number of active oil rigs increased by one to 451, according to OilPrice.com. The Permian Basin added 2 rigs for a total of 260. Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count, which estimates crews completing wells, rose by 2 to 198.

Despite the higher rig count, weekly U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.796 million barrels per day for the week ending July 24, a slight decrease from 13.798 million bpd the week before, but still up 482,000 bpd from a year ago.

For Bakken operators, the combination of prices holding near $85 and a tightening physical market, evidenced by the large inventory draw, provides a stable revenue environment. The steady Bakken differential suggests regional takeaway capacity remains sufficient. However, the cautious single-rig increase in the national oil count, as noted by OilPrice.com, indicates producers remain disciplined despite the price level, a trend likely mirrored in the Williston Basin. The geopolitical premium injected by the Abqaiq event underscores the ongoing volatility risk that can swiftly impact the price backdrop for North Dakota's crude.