Oil Prices Steady Amid Global Supply Disruptions, Bakken Differential Holds

Front-month WTI crude oil futures were trading at $89.31 per barrel on Sunday, July 26, 2026, showing no net change from the previous session, according to live market data. The international benchmark Brent crude was also flat at $96.78. The price for Bakken crude at the wellhead, reflected in the Bakken differential, held at a discount of $3.42 per barrel versus WTI.

The stagnant pricing belies significant volatility and competing market forces seen throughout the week. According to a report from OilPrice.com, Brent crude topped $100 per barrel earlier in the week following attacks by Yemen's Houthis on tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This blockade, combined with an ongoing Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has severely restricted global oil flows. The Strait of Hormuz, which previously moved about 20 million barrels per day, has slowed to a trickle, while the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint for Saudi oil is also nearly completely blocked.

Further compounding supply concerns, Ukrainian drone strikes on the Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea have forced Kazakhstan to suspend most of its oil exports, amounting to a loss of 1.7 million barrels daily, OilPrice.com reported. Attacks on Russian refineries have also led to export restrictions on diesel, tightening global fuel markets at a time when refining capacity is limited.

However, prices pulled back from recent highs. A separate report from Rigzone indicated Brent crude declined after reports of continued U.S.-Iran diplomacy and ongoing Red Sea oil flows reduced immediate supply fears. Additionally, U.S. crude inventories showed a build, with stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reaching 411.7 million barrels as of July 17, according to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration data cited by Rigzone.

For Bakken operators, the current price environment presents a mixed picture. A Brent price near $97 and WTI around $89 supports strong revenue generation for production. The stable, narrow Bakken differential of -$3.42 indicates reliable takeaway capacity and favorable pricing relative to the domestic benchmark, maximizing wellhead economics. However, the extreme volatility driven by distant geopolitical events underscores the market's sensitivity to supply shocks, which can rapidly alter the pricing landscape.

The global refining crunch highlighted by analysts poses a longer-term consideration. With refining margins at record highs and diesel supplies constrained, the value of crude alone does not fully capture the strained downstream market. The ongoing disruptions to major maritime oil routes reinforce the value of secure, domestic production from basins like the Bakken, though operators remain exposed to the broader price swings dictated by international events.