Oil Prices Surge Above $100, Bakken Spread Holds Steady

West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged past the $100 per barrel mark in early Thursday trading, with prices bolstered by ongoing market tightness. WTI settled at $100.51, a gain of $2.25 or 2.29%, according to live price data. The international benchmark Brent crude also rose, climbing 1.75% to $106.86 per barrel.

The price strength provides immediate revenue upside for Bakken shale producers. The discount for Bakken crude at the wellhead, known as the differential, was recorded at $-3.42 versus WTI. This stable spread means local operators are capturing nearly all of the gains from the rising benchmark price.

In contrast to the bullish crude picture, natural gas prices saw minimal movement. Henry Hub futures were quoted at $3.16 per MMBtu, up just one cent. This comes a day after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its price forecast for the fuel. According to Rigzone, the EIA reduced its Henry Hub spot price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, published May 20.

The divergence between strong oil and subdued natural gas markets has significant implications for Bakken operators, whose production stream is typically a mix of both commodities. The current environment heavily favors the oil portion of their output. High crude prices directly improve cash flow and can support increased drilling and completion activity in the Williston Basin, particularly for operators focused on oil-weighted assets.

The EIA's revised lower forecast for natural gas suggests expectations of continued ample supply or moderated demand growth in the coming years. For Bakken producers with significant associated gas output, this reinforces the economic primacy of crude oil in the region's development plans. Operators will likely continue to prioritize oil-directed rigs and well designs to capitalize on the favorable crude price environment.

Market analysts point to sustained OPEC+ production discipline, geopolitical tensions, and solid global demand as key factors supporting oil prices above the $100 threshold. The price resilience at this level is a positive signal for North Dakota's state budget and mineral royalty owners, whose revenues are closely tied to the value of crude.