Oil Prices Surge on OPEC+ Supply Move and Strong Demand Outlook
WTI gains nearly 3% as select OPEC+ members announce June increase and annual data shows robust consumption growth.
Oil prices posted strong gains Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settling at $104.88, a rise of $2.94 or 2.88%. Brent crude climbed more sharply, gaining $5.53 to $113.70 per barrel. Bakken crude traded at a differential of $-3.42 versus WTI. Natural gas prices also edged higher, adding $0.07 to $2.85.
The price rally follows a weekend announcement from a subset of OPEC+ members. According to Rigzone, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman decided in a virtual meeting May 3 to boost collective production by 188,000 barrels per day in June. The increase comprises specific contributions from each nation, with Saudi Arabia and Russia each adding 62,000 barrels per day. The group stated the adjustment could be reversed "subject to evolving market conditions" and reaffirmed a "cautious approach" to supporting stability.
This supply decision comes against a backdrop of sustained global demand growth. OPEC's latest Annual Statistical Bulletin, reported by Rigzone, projected world oil demand grew by 1.30 million barrels per day year-on-year in 2025, reaching 105.15 million barrels per day. The data showed gains across almost every region, led by non-OECD Asia, China, Africa, Latin America, India, and the Middle East. Total world crude production increased by 2.24 million barrels per day in 2025 to 74.85 million barrels per day.
The high-price environment is already impacting corporate decisions. Seplat Energy PLC increased its dividend by 96 percent year-on-year to $0.09 per share for Q1 2026, citing projected "strong cash flows" driven by high oil prices, Rigzone reported. The company's chief executive noted the conflict in the Middle East has "dramatically changed the outlook" for the industry. Seplat's realized oil price in Q1 averaged $86.2 per barrel, up 12.8 percent year-on-year.
For Bakken operators, the sustained high prices for benchmark crudes directly benefit economics, though the region's specific grade trades at a slight discount to WTI. The combination of strong global demand fundamentals and a measured, conditional supply increase from key OPEC+ producers supports a firm price floor. This environment enhances cash flows for producers, potentially supporting continued activity and investment in the Williston Basin. However, the OPEC+ group's emphasis on flexibility and a cautious approach indicates market volatility may persist, requiring operators to remain agile.
Source
Bakken Wire Live Price Data, Rigzone (OPEC Report Shows Oil Demand Reached Over 105MMBpd in 2025), Rigzone (OPEC+ Decides to Boost Output), Rigzone (Seplat Raises Q1 Dividend on Robust Oil Price Outlook)
