Oil Prices Surge Past $100 as Hormuz Blockage Enters Ninth Week

Oil prices surged on Tuesday, with the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude crossing the $100 per barrel threshold as a prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz forced analysts to reassess market tightness. WTI crude was trading at $101.79, a gain of $5.42 or 5.62%, according to live price data. The international benchmark Brent crude was at $105.79, up $4.10.

The primary driver remains the geopolitical stalemate at the critical Middle Eastern chokepoint. According to a report from OilPrice.com, the Strait of Hormuz has now been inaccessible for more than eight weeks, disrupting 20% of daily global oil and LNG flows. Initial market expectations for a quick resolution in April have faded, with no signs of a reopening as U.S.-Iran talks remain stalled.

With the disruption extending into its ninth week, financial institutions are raising their price forecasts. ING revised its base case on Tuesday, now projecting ICE Brent to average $104 per barrel in the second quarter, up from a previous forecast of $96, according to OilPrice.com. The bank's Head of Commodities Strategy, Warren Patterson, stated they now assume flows will only slowly start resuming in May and June, remaining below pre-war levels for most of the year. Goldman Sachs also raised its outlook over the weekend.

For Bakken operators, the price surge is amplified by a relatively strong local price differential. The Bakken differential to WTI was recorded at -$3.42 on Tuesday, a narrower discount than has been seen at times in the past. This means Bakken crude is priced closer to the benchmark, increasing the net revenue for every barrel produced in North Dakota.

Sustained prices above $100 per barrel significantly improve cash flow and wellhead economics for shale producers across the Williston Basin. The higher price environment supports maintenance of drilling activity and provides stronger returns for mineral rights owners. The combination of high benchmark prices and a stable differential creates a favorable operational backdrop.

Analysts cite low global inventories and the need for restocking—both commercial and strategic—as factors that will keep prices supported. ING's Patterson noted this need suggests "oil prices will remain relatively well supported for the foreseeable future," according to OilPrice.com. For North Dakota, the extended high-price scenario driven by geopolitical supply risk translates directly into increased state tax revenue and economic activity centered on the oil patch.