US Sanctions, Regional Tensions to Shape Global Energy Flows

The U.S. Congress has passed sweeping new sanctions targeting Russia's oil, gas, and energy shipping networks, sending legislation to President Donald Trump that could reshape global energy markets and demand patterns relevant to Bakken crude. The House passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 on September 16 by a vote of 262-159, following Senate approval last month, according to OilPrice.com.

The legislation gives Trump the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on major purchasers of Russian oil and gas and on countries that help Moscow evade sanctions. While the bill's tariff provisions divided Democrats, supporters argue it will increase pressure on Russia. "We support as strong sanctions as possible on Russia," Estonian Ambassador to the U.S. Hannes Hanso told RFE/RL on September 16, according to the source. "The sooner we can implement those sanctions against Russia the better."

Concurrently, regional tensions are causing immediate supply disruptions. Days after Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reaffirmed an intention to reduce dependence on Russian gas on September 11, Gazprom Armenia announced a sudden suspension of supplies from September 15-25, according to OilPrice.com. The company attributed the cutoff to scheduled maintenance. The move highlights the volatility of regional energy politics, with Azerbaijan signaling a willingness to supply gas to Armenia but only after a final peace deal, the source reported.

These geopolitical shifts are occurring as major consumers seek to secure supplies. Oil giant Saudi Aramco has been looking to secure thousands of tons of diesel in the Mediterranean, according to Rigzone.

For Bakken operators, the new U.S. sanctions package represents a potential catalyst for shifting global trade flows. Stronger enforcement against Russia's "shadow fleet" of tankers and tariffs on buyers of Russian energy could tighten global supply for compliant markets, potentially supporting international benchmark prices that influence Bakken crude pricing. However, the direct impact depends on how aggressively the Trump administration uses its new authority.

The supply cutoff to Armenia and Aramco's search for diesel underscore a tightening and nervous global refined products market. While not directly impacting North Dakota, these movements reflect a global environment where logistical dislocations and political risks are prompting major players to scour for reliable supply—a factor that can influence crack spreads and refinery demand for light sweet crudes like those from the Bakken.

The developing situation in the South Caucasus also bears watching. A finalized peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially unlocking new gas transit routes, could incrementally alter long-term natural gas dynamics in Eurasia, though its direct effect on the Bakken's oil-centric market remains limited.