War Powers Clock Ticks on Iran, Hormuz Standoff Threatens $140 Oil

A critical 60-day legal deadline under the War Powers Resolution arrives today, pressuring the Trump administration to either seek congressional authorization for hostilities against Iran or begin a withdrawal, according to OilPrice.com. The administration argues a ceasefire has "paused the clock," but faces pressure to file a required 30-day withdrawal notice. Concurrently, Iran warns that the ongoing U.S. blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices to $140 per barrel.

The geopolitical standoff is already impacting markets. The blockade has pushed Brent crude prices above $110 this week, OilPrice.com reported, with the market weighing physical supply losses and fears of escalation. Reports indicate U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is preparing to brief President Trump on a plan involving a "short and powerful" round of strikes on Iran to break the negotiating deadlock—a move analysts suggest could send Brent above $126 immediately.

Iranian leadership remains defiant. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf criticized U.S. advisors for pushing blockade policies and teased Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about the difficulty of blockading Iran's long borders. In a televised message, Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei suggested the only place for the U.S. in the Persian Gulf is "at the bottom of its waters," according to OilPrice.com. Iran signals it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz to free traffic unless the American blockade is lifted.

For Bakken operators and North Dakota royalty owners, the heightened risk premium and potential for supply disruption out of the Middle East directly support stronger crude pricing. A sustained move toward $140 Brent would significantly improve wellhead economics in the play, though it also raises the specter of demand destruction and increased global volatility.

In other global energy news, Japan's ENEOS is re-entering a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. Malaysia's national oil company Petronas signed a deal to give ENEOS a 10 percent ownership stake in the Malaysia LNG Tiga facility, Rigzone reported. The deal underscores the continued global focus on securing long-term natural gas supply and infrastructure, a trend that supports broader energy commodity markets.

The situation remains fluid. President Trump also threatened this week to reduce U.S. troop presence in Germany, Italy, and Spain following criticism from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over U.S. strategy on Iran, according to OilPrice.com. These broader geopolitical tensions contribute to an uncertain backdrop for global energy trade as the White House navigates the legal and military complexities of the Iran standoff.