WTI Tops $102 as LNG Supply Woes, Venezuela Exports Influence Market

Front-month WTI crude oil futures rose nearly 1 percent to trade above $102 per barrel on Tuesday, while the Bakken differential held steady. West Texas Intermediate gained $0.99 to settle at $102.38, and Brent crude added $0.16 to $101.15. Natural gas prices were largely flat at $2.89 per MMBtu.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, specifically involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, continues to disrupt global energy flows and underpin oil prices. According to a report from OilPrice.com, the chokepoint has severely curtailed liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. While Persian Gulf producers have found workarounds for oil deliveries, LNG transfers remain physically difficult, keeping supplies tight.

This supply constraint has sent Asian spot LNG prices to their highest levels since 2022, with prices for October delivery into northeast Asia holding above $25 per MMBtu. Executives at the Gastech conference noted that this price spike is temporarily suppressing demand in key Asian markets like China and India. Deepak Gupta, chairman of India’s GAIL, stated the high prices are impacting price-sensitive sectors, according to the OilPrice.com report.

PetroChina International executives echoed this sentiment, attributing lower Chinese LNG purchases directly to soaring prices. CEO Luo Yizhou said demand would rebound once prices return to a "normal range" below $10 per MMBtu, but cautioned that growth may not be as rapid as pre-2022 levels.

In other supply news, Venezuela's crude exports reached approximately 1.15 million barrels per day in April, according to a summary from Rigzone citing Wood Mackenzie data. This represents a significant volume re-entering the global market, though its impact is balanced against persistent supply risks elsewhere.

For Bakken operators, the sustained strength in the WTI benchmark above $100 is a positive signal for revenue and drilling economics. The Bakken differential to WTI, reported at -$3.42, indicates local crude is pricing at a discount of roughly $98.96 per barrel. The combination of high flat prices and a stable differential provides a favorable environment for production and cash flow in the Williston Basin.

The global narrative remains centered on geopolitical risk and supply reliability. The Middle East conflict's direct impact on LNG, a key competitor and complementary fuel to oil, contributes to overall energy market tightness and price support for hydrocarbons, including crude from the Bakken formation.