Monday, August 31, 2026

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Surge Over 3% on Geopolitical Risk, Diesel Margin Forecasts

Oil prices rallied sharply in morning trading on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gaining $3.22 to settle at $86.62 per barrel, a rise of 3.86%. Brent crude climbed $2.76 to $88.88. The price surge was attributed to renewed geopolitical supply concerns and bullish forecasts for record diesel refining margins, according to related market reports. The Bakken crude differential to WTI was reported at -$3.42 per barrel. The strong rise in the benchmark price directly boosts the wellhead value for North Dakota producers, as the local price typically tracks WTI minus the differential. Analysts pointed to supply security uncertainty as a primary driver. "The immediate bullish force is supply-security uncertainty," Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, told Rigzone. This sentiment was amplified by a report from Goldman Sachs, which sees diesel refining margins soaring to $63 a barrel in the United States by 2027, according to OilPrice.com. Goldman...

☀️Morning Wire·Aug 31

Rig Report

Bakken Rig Count Holds at 36, Up 9 Rigs Since August 1

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held at 36 on Monday, according to live data from Bakken Wire. The figure showed no change from the previous day, with no new rigs added, no rigs removed, and no rigs moving locations. The current activity level represents a notable increase from recent historical benchmarks. One week ago, on August 24, the state reported 34 active rigs, meaning the count has risen by two rigs over the past seven days. The growth is more pronounced over a longer period, with the fleet up by nine rigs since the beginning of August, when 27 rigs were active on August 1. The sustained count above 30 rigs indicates a period of relative stability for drilling operations in the Bakken formation and Williston Basin. Rig count is a leading indicator of future oil production, as new wells take months to drill, complete, and bring online. A...

☀️Morning Wire·Aug 31

Daily Activity

DMR Reports No New Drilling Activity Filings for Sunday

The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) daily activity report for Sunday, August 30, 2026, contained no new filings for drilling or well completion activity, according to the agency's report. The DMR daily report typically lists new drilling permits approved, wells that have been spudded (drilling commenced), wells that have been completed, and notices of well plugging. The absence of new filings on any given day, particularly on weekends and holidays, is a normal occurrence as companies and regulatory processing schedules slow down. The next report of activity will be reflected in the DMR's Monday report, which will capture any filings submitted during the business day of August 31. The daily activity reports are a key indicator for Bakken operators, service companies, and mineral owners tracking the pace of development in the Williston Basin.

☀️Morning Wire·Aug 31

Global Markets

Global Market Shifts Create New Dynamics for Bakken Crude

Asian refiners are seeking crude oil from Argentina to replace disrupted Middle Eastern supplies, according to a report from Bloomberg cited by OilPrice.com. This shift could introduce new competition for similar-grade crudes, including those produced in the Bakken. Refiners in China, Japan, and South Korea have purchased cargoes of Argentina's Medanito crude, which is comparable to U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), according to the report. Medanito is produced from Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale basin and is being sold at a discount of $1-$2 per barrel versus WTI. Asian buyers are attracted to the South American crude because its shipping route around South America avoids geopolitical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. Argentina’s oil sales to Asia have jumped this year from 2025, and from no exports at all until 2024, according to Argentinian government data. The broader search for non-Middle Eastern oil also includes other South American producers like Brazil...

☀️Morning Wire·Aug 31

🔆Midday Wire11:00 AM CST

The Midday Take

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Oil Prices

Oil Prices Surge Over 2% as Supply Concerns Mount

Oil prices rallied sharply on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gaining nearly 2.4% to settle above $85 per barrel. The global benchmark, Brent crude, followed closely, climbing to $88.17. The price surge reflects growing market tightness and a spillover effect from record rallies in other key commodities, notably coking coal. The rally in crude coincided with significant strength in the metallurgical coal market. According to a report from OilPrice.com, China's coking coal prices are set for a record 46% monthly surge in August, the biggest jump since futures began trading in 2013. This was driven by persistent supply issues following a deadly mining disaster in China's Shanxi province and increased safety checks. The supply tightness has extended globally, with premium coking coal prices from Australia up 25% year-to-date, a factor mining giant BHP cited in a recent outlook. While not a direct input for oil production, the historic...

🔆Midday Wire·Aug 31

Regulatory

UK Windfall Tax Proposal, Offshore Deal Scrutiny Highlight Global Fiscal Pressure

UK Chancellor John Healey is considering new windfall taxes on oil companies and banks to rebuild government finances, according to a report from OilPrice.com. The proposal, presented ahead of an October Budget, aims to address a partly-eroded £22.7 billion fiscal buffer and fund spending pledges for defense and cost-of-living support. Treasury officials reportedly view windfall taxes on these sectors as “low hanging fruit” for increasing government receipts. The plan has drawn warnings from industry leaders, including Citigroup boss Dame Jane Fraser, who cautioned the Chancellor against a new banking tax. The broader fiscal squeeze, including new public sector pay rise pressures, could limit the government's ability to provide relief to households and businesses. While directly targeting UK operations, such fiscal measures in major financial and energy markets signal a broader global trend of increased government scrutiny on hydrocarbon profits. For Bakken operators with international portfolios or parent companies listed on...

🔆Midday Wire·Aug 31

Global Markets

U.S. Announces Tough New Iran Sanctions, Global Oil Market Shift Looms

The U.S. has announced sweeping new sanctions on Iran, a move analysts say has solidified China's position as the winner of the latest global oil market crisis while setting the stage for a high-stakes geopolitical confrontation. For Bakken operators, the stability of oil prices hinges on how this confrontation unfolds. On August 20, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced what he called "the toughest sanctions in history" on Iran under the 'Economic D-Day' initiative. According to a report from OilPrice.com, the sanctions aim for the complete financial isolation and economic shutdown of the Iranian regime by cutting off all domestic and international revenue streams. The U.S. Treasury blacklisted five core sectors of Iran's economy: Digital Assets/Crypto, Technology, Gold, Aviation, and Shipping. Any business operating within these sectors is now subject to immediate asset freezes. All longstanding humanitarian, academic, athletic, and personal remittance exemptions were also indefinitely suspended. In parallel, the...

🔆Midday Wire·Aug 31

🌅Afternoon Wire4:00 PM CST

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Rally Over 3% as Bakken Discount Narrows

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged $2.90 on Monday, August 31, to settle at $86.30 per barrel, a gain of 3.48%. The global benchmark, Brent crude, followed closely, rising 2.75% or $2.37 to $88.49. The rally provided a direct boost to Bakken crude values. The price for Bakken sweet crude at the Clearbrook, Minnesota, hub traded at a differential of -$3.42 per barrel versus WTI. This narrower discount compared to recent weeks means Bakken producers realized a price near $82.88 per barrel for their output, capturing a significant portion of the day's strong gains. The sharp price increase was driven by a combination of supply-side concerns and positive macroeconomic signals. Market analysts pointed to ongoing commitments from OPEC+ nations to maintain production cuts through the end of the year, tightening global supply. Concurrently, stronger-than-expected manufacturing data from major economies eased fears of an imminent slowdown in oil demand. Natural...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Aug 31

Rig Report

North Dakota Rig Count Holds Steady at 36

The number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota's oil fields remained unchanged at 36 on Monday, according to live rig data. The total held steady as two new rigs were deployed, while two others were released from service. EOG Resources, Inc. and Continental Resources, Inc. each added a new rig to the state's fleet. EOG spudded the H & P 259 in Mountrail County at location 157-90-31. Continental spudded the PATTERSON 297 in Williams County at location 155-95-2. The two rigs removed were both located in the core Bakken county of McKenzie. Devon Energy Williston, L.L.C. released the NOBLE 4 from location 152-101-14, and Hess Bakken Investments II, LLC released the ENSIGN 532 from location 149-100-30. No rigs were reported as moving location. The current activity level represents a continuation of the recent upward trend in drilling. The rig count is up by two compared to one week ago,...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Aug 31

Global Markets

BP Ramps Up Egypt Gas Production Two Years Early

BP has started natural gas production from a key Egyptian well roughly two years ahead of schedule, adding supply to a global market closely watched by Bakken energy producers. According to a report from OilPrice.com, BP began production from the Fayoum-4 well in Egypt’s West Nile Delta on Monday, adding around 80 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). The accelerated production was achieved by connecting the new well to existing processing facilities via the Giza-Fayoum pipeline, eliminating the need for new subsea infrastructure. OilPrice.com reported that BP discovered the Fayoum reservoir during its 2025 exploration campaign and used a sidetrack from an existing well to reach new layers at a depth of around 3,000 meters. This incremental supply enters a complex global gas landscape. The source notes that Egypt's domestic gas production has fallen sharply since a 2021 peak, forcing the country to become a large-scale liquefied natural gas (LNG)...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Aug 31

Operator News

Chevron Nears Major Venezuela Deals as Global Portfolio Expands

Chevron is preparing to sign final energy agreements in Venezuela, part of a wave of new foreign investment into the country's oilfields and power infrastructure, according to a Reuters report cited by OilPrice.com. The deals come as Venezuela rewrites contracts to give companies more operational control and direct export rights. The agreements are separate from a larger U.S.-Venezuela pact announced last week covering stakes in 17 oilfields. Chevron's specific deals are expected to be "of significant size," one source told Reuters, and include seeking an additional block in the Orinoco Belt and an area in northern Monagas to supply diluents. For Chevron, a major operator in North Dakota's Bakken formation, the move represents continued investment in its international portfolio. The company maintained operations in Venezuela throughout recent years, unlike peers ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips which have not returned to operating oilfields there. This expansion occurs as the industry globally competes for...

🌅Afternoon Wire·Aug 31