Bakken Rig Count Holds at 22 as Oil Prices Surge Above $90

Oil prices surged Wednesday, providing a favorable pricing environment for North Dakota producers, but the state's active rig count remained at a low level, according to Bakken Wire live data. West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $92.75 per barrel, a gain of $3.08, while Brent crude surpassed $101. The number of active drilling rigs in the state was unchanged at 22.

The current rig count is a critical indicator for future Bakken oil production, as it reflects operator investment in new wells. Historically, a sustained increase in the rig count leads to increased production several months later, while a low or declining count typically precedes a production plateau or decline. The current count of 22 rigs is far below the boom-era highs of over 200 and is also low compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The strong crude prices, with Bakken crude priced at a $3.42 discount to WTI, offer healthy operating margins for companies in the basin. This favorable economics would typically incentivize increased drilling activity. The fact that the rig count has not risen significantly suggests operators remain focused on capital discipline, shareholder returns, and optimizing existing wells rather than aggressively growing output.

Natural gas prices, at $2.71 per MMBtu, remain a challenging component of the Bakken's economics, as the basin produces significant associated gas. The low gas price continues to pressure operator margins and can influence decisions on well completion and gas capture investments.

The combination of high oil prices and a stagnant low rig count points to a likely scenario of stable to slightly declining production in North Dakota over the coming months. Operators appear content to generate cash flow at current activity levels rather than launching a major expansion. The focus for many remains on efficiently draining their high-quality core inventory.

For royalty owners, the high oil price directly boosts revenue from existing production, but the low drilling activity limits opportunities for new leases or wells. The outlook suggests steady income from current wells without a near-term surge in new development.