Bakken Rig Count Holds at 34 as Oil Prices Offer Support

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held steady at 34 this week, according to live Bakken Wire data. The stability in drilling activity comes as benchmark oil prices provide a supportive, if volatile, environment for operators.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $86.85 per barrel on Friday, a marginal increase of two cents. The international Brent benchmark saw a stronger gain, rising 0.55% to $94.30. Bakken crude traded at a discount of $3.42 per barrel to WTI. Natural gas prices were reported at $2.80.

The current rig count of 34 serves as a key indicator of near-term production trends. Historically, the number of active rigs in the Williston Basin is a leading indicator, with changes in the count typically foreshadowing production increases or declines several months later. The current level, while stable, remains significantly lower than the boom-era peaks of over 200 rigs and even pre-pandemic levels.

Analysts often view a sustained rig count in the 30s as consistent with maintaining or slightly growing production from the Bakken formation, given modern drilling efficiency and well productivity. However, it is generally insufficient to drive the rapid production growth seen in previous cycles. Operators continue to prioritize capital discipline and shareholder returns, directing activity only to their most premium drilling locations.

The price environment, with WTI sustaining a level above $85, is considered economically viable for most Bakken operators. The differential—the discount at which Bakken crude sells compared to WTI—is a critical factor for local breakeven costs. A differential near $3.40 is viewed as relatively narrow and favorable for wellhead economics.

The outlook for North Dakota oil production in the coming quarters is likely one of modest stability. The flat rig count, supported by current prices, suggests operators are maintaining a measured pace of development. Without a significant and sustained increase in the rig count or a major technological leap in well productivity, production levels are expected to remain near current plateaus, with natural decline from existing wells offset by new wells brought online from the active drilling fleet.