Bakken Rig Count Holds at 22 as Oil Prices Surge Past $87

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held steady at 22 as oil prices surged on Monday, according to live data from Bakken Wire. The stability in rigs suggests operators are maintaining a measured pace of activity despite strong price signals.

The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $87.58 per barrel at midday, a substantial daily gain of $4.99. The international benchmark Brent crude rose to $95.56. The price for Bakken crude at the wellhead remains competitive, with the differential to WTI at -$3.42.

The current rig count of 22 is a critical indicator for future oil production in the state. Rig counts are a leading indicator, as new wells drilled today will typically begin producing oil several months later. The current level, while stable, is far below the boom-time peaks of over 200 rigs seen in the early 2010s and even below the more recent pre-pandemic average.

Historically, sustained periods of high oil prices have led to increases in the rig count as producers accelerate drilling programs to capture revenue. The current price environment, with WTI above $85, is considered strongly supportive for drilling. However, operator discipline, focused on capital returns to shareholders, and supply chain constraints have moderated the traditional price-to-rig response in recent years.

The narrow Bakken differential is a positive factor for local producers, as it means they receive a price much closer to the WTI benchmark, improving netbacks. Combined with high absolute prices, this creates a favorable revenue environment for existing wells and new projects.

The flat rig count at 22 units suggests that, for now, major Bakken operators are sticking to their planned capital budgets. Without a significant increase in drilling activity, North Dakota's oil production is likely to see only modest growth in the coming months, potentially maintaining output near recent levels of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day. A sustained price rally could eventually pressure companies to add rigs, but any increase is expected to be gradual.

Natural gas prices, a secondary but important revenue stream for Bakken producers, were quoted at $2.71 per MMBtu. Lower natural gas prices can impact the economics of wells with high associated gas output.