Bakken Rig Count Holds at 22 as Oil Prices Surge Past $97

North Dakota's active drilling rig count remained at 22 for the week, according to live Bakken Wire data, as benchmark oil prices surged to multi-month highs. The stability in the drilling fleet, coupled with significantly stronger crude prices, could signal a potential bottom for the state's recent production declines.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $97.87 per barrel on Monday, April 13, a gain of $1.30 or 1.35%. The international Brent benchmark saw an even stronger increase, rising $2.66 to $97.86 per barrel. Natural gas prices were reported at $2.62 per MMBtu. The current rig count of 22 is a critical indicator of future oil production, as new wells typically take several months to drill, complete, and bring online.

Historically, the number of active drilling rigs in the Bakken formation and Williston Basin serves as a leading indicator for production trends. A sustained increase in the rig count generally forecasts rising output 6-9 months later, while a declining count often precedes a production plateau or drop. The current count of 22 rigs is far below the boom-era peaks of over 200 but has shown relative stability in recent reporting periods.

The simultaneous occurrence of high oil prices and a steady rig count presents a complex picture for Bakken operators. Prices above $95 per barrel provide strong economic incentives to increase drilling activity and complete drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs). However, operators have remained disciplined, focusing on capital returns to shareholders and efficiency gains rather than aggressive production growth.

For near-term production, the current rig level suggests that the state's output, which has retreated from its record highs, may be approaching a floor. Without a further drop in the drilling fleet, the steepness of the production decline is likely to moderate. The significant price strength provides a favorable revenue environment for existing wells and could support marginal increases in workover and optimization activity.

The outlook for the coming quarters will depend on whether operators choose to deploy the current price signal into added drilling activity. Any decision to add rigs would take months to materially affect production figures. For now, the data suggests a period of consolidation for the Bakken, with high prices supporting operator cash flows but not yet triggering a new growth cycle.