Bakken Rig Count Holds at 23 Amid Sharp Decline in Crude Prices

North Dakota's active rig count held at 23 on Sunday, July 26, 2026, a key indicator that drilling activity has found a tentative baseline even as crude oil prices fell sharply. The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price was $89.31, down $2.88 or 3.12% on the day, while Brent crude traded at $96.78.

The current rig count, a leading indicator of future production, suggests operators may be maintaining a minimal core drilling program to hold leases and sustain base production. Historically, the number of active rigs in the Bakken formation has a direct, lagged correlation with oil output, with changes in the drilling fleet typically affecting production volumes several months later.

The Bakken differential, the discount at which Bakken crude trades versus WTI, was reported at -$3.42. This pricing reflects local supply, demand, and pipeline takeaway capacity. The price of natural gas, a co-produced commodity in the region, was $2.89.

The sharp single-day drop in oil prices, with Brent falling nearly 4%, introduces headwinds for operator cash flow and drilling budgets. Sustained prices below key thresholds can lead to a reduction in capital expenditure and a subsequent decline in the rig count, which would pressure future production growth.

For now, the steady rig count indicates a cautious but continuing operational presence in the Williston Basin. The Bakken formation is North Dakota's primary oil-producing region and a key contributor to U.S. domestic supply. A rig count in the low 20s is consistent with a focus on efficiency and high-graded drilling locations rather than aggressive expansion.

The outlook for North Dakota oil production in the coming months will depend heavily on whether the current price volatility persists or stabilizes. If the rig count remains near current levels, production is likely to remain relatively flat, barring significant gains in well productivity. A further sustained drop in prices could pressure the count lower, setting the stage for a production decline later in the year.