Bakken Rig Count Holds at 23 as Oil Prices Surge Past $105

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held steady at 23 on Monday, May 4, 2026, as benchmark oil prices surged, providing a supportive backdrop for Bakken operators. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $105.37 per barrel, up $3.43 or 3.36% on the day, while the global Brent benchmark rose 5.3% to $113.90.

The Bakken price differential—the discount at which Bakken crude trades relative to WTI at the Clearbrook, Minnesota, hub—was relatively narrow at -$3.42 per barrel. This strong price realizations for local crude, combined with the high absolute price, typically incentivizes increased capital spending and drilling activity. Natural gas prices were reported at $2.86 per MMBtu.

Historically, the rig count is a leading indicator of future oil production in North Dakota, with a lag of several months between deploying a new rig and bringing new wells to first production. The current count of 23 rigs represents a base level of activity necessary to offset the steep decline rates from existing Bakken wells and maintain, or modestly grow, the state's production.

The sustained high oil price environment, with WTI consistently above $100 per barrel, suggests operators have the economic incentive to increase drilling. However, the rig count's stability indicates a continued focus on capital discipline, shareholder returns, and efficiency gains rather than a return to aggressive growth. Operators are likely maximizing production from existing drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and high-grading their best remaining acreage.

For royalty owners and service companies, the current dynamics suggest steady, but not booming, activity levels. The strong crude price directly boosts royalty checks and operator cash flows, funding dividends and debt reduction alongside limited drilling programs. The outlook for near-term production remains one of cautious stability, with the potential for slight increases if the high-price environment persists and prompts a gradual rig addition in the coming quarters.