Bakken Rig Count Holds at 25 as Oil Prices Retreat

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held at 25 on Thursday, July 9, 2026, providing a steady base for the state's oil production even as crude oil prices fell sharply. According to live Bakken Wire data, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $71.81, down $1.71 or 2.33% for the day, while the global Brent benchmark fell 2.51% to $76.06.

The current rig count, a key indicator of future production, has remained in the mid-20s range for several months. This level of drilling activity is historically associated with maintaining, but not significantly growing, production from the Bakken formation, North Dakota's primary oil-producing region. The Bakken differential, the discount for Bakken crude priced at the Clearbrook, Minnesota hub, was reported at $-3.42 versus WTI.

Industry analysts closely watch the relationship between rig counts and production, with a typical lag of several months between changes in drilling activity and corresponding shifts in output. A stable rig count in the 20s suggests operators are focused on efficiently developing drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and high-graded locations, rather than embarking on a major expansion.

The day's price weakness, if sustained, could pressure the capital spending plans of independent operators that dominate the Bakken. However, the current WTI price near $72 is still within a range many consider workable for the basin's core acreage. Natural gas prices, often a secondary revenue driver, were reported at $3.01 per MMBtu.

The production outlook for the remainder of 2026 will depend heavily on whether oil prices stabilize or continue to exhibit volatility. A prolonged period of prices significantly below current levels would likely lead to a reduction in the rig count, eventually flowing through to lower production. Conversely, a rebound could provide the confidence needed for a modest increase in drilling activity.

For now, the steady rig count indicates a period of consolidation for Bakken operators. The focus remains on operational efficiency and capital discipline, with production levels expected to show minimal change in the near term barring a major shift in the commodity price environment.