Bakken Rig Count Holds at 26 as Oil Prices Retreat

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held steady at 26 on Monday, June 22, 2026, even as crude oil prices saw a sharp midday decline. The current rig level provides a key indicator for the near-term trajectory of Bakken shale production.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $73.53, down $2.32 or 3.06% for the day. The international benchmark Brent crude fell to $77.61. The price for Bakken crude at the wellhead is typically discounted against WTI; the current differential is -$3.42. Natural gas was priced at $3.31 per MMBtu.

The rig count is a closely watched leading indicator for future oil production, as it reflects the level of new well drilling activity by operators. Historically, sustained movements in the rig count precede changes in production volumes by several months. A stable or rising count suggests operators are confident enough to invest in new wells, while a declining count often signals a pullback in development plans.

The current count of 26 rigs represents a baseline of ongoing development but remains significantly below the boom-era highs seen in the previous decade. At this level, production is likely to maintain a plateau or see modest declines unless significantly more rigs are added. Major price swings, like Monday's drop, can influence future drilling decisions.

For Bakken operators, the combined data presents a mixed picture. The steady rig count indicates continued, deliberate activity in the core areas of the play. However, the day's weaker oil prices and persistent wellhead discount apply pressure to cash flows and economic margins, potentially limiting any near-term expansion in drilling programs.

The outlook for North Dakota production in the coming quarters will hinge on whether oil prices stabilize at levels that justify increased capital spending. With the rig count holding flat, a substantial production increase is not anticipated in the immediate future. State production figures, which are reported on a several-month lag, will eventually reflect the activity level signaled by the current rig count.