Bakken Rig Count Holds at 26 as Oil Prices Show Modest Decline

The active rig count in North Dakota held steady at 26 on Thursday, July 16, 2026, as benchmark oil prices showed minimal movement, according to live Bakken data. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $79.02 per barrel, down 13 cents on the day, while Brent crude was flat at $84.95.

The current rig count of 26 represents a historically low level of drilling activity in the Bakken formation. Historically, the rig count is a leading indicator for future oil production, with a sustained increase in active rigs typically preceding a rise in output several months later. Conversely, a stable, low count like today's suggests operators are maintaining capital discipline and not significantly accelerating new well drilling programs.

The price environment provides some context for the restrained activity. With WTI hovering near $79 and the Bakken crude differential at -$3.42 versus WTI, the realized price for Bakken producers is approximately $75.60 per barrel. Natural gas prices, at $2.85, remain a secondary concern for the primarily oil-focused basin. These price levels are generally sufficient to support maintenance drilling but have not consistently incentivized a major rig count expansion over the past year.

For near-term production levels, the sustained low rig count points to a continuation of flat to slightly declining output from the state. Production gains are now largely driven by improved efficiency from completed wells and enhanced recovery techniques, rather than a surge in new drilling. The current activity level is focused on holding core acreage and completing high-quality drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs).

The outlook for North Dakota oil production remains one of managed stability. Operators are likely to keep activity closely aligned with cash flow and shareholder returns, with significant rig additions waiting on a stronger and more sustained price signal above current levels. The focus for Bakken producers continues to be on maximizing returns from existing assets and strategic, high-return drilling within their core positions.