Bakken Rig Count Holds at 27 as Oil Prices Retreat from Recent Highs

The number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota held steady at 27 on Thursday, a level suggesting a continued cautious but stable operational environment in the Bakken formation. The rig count is a closely watched leading indicator for future oil production.

The steady rig activity comes amid a significant daily pullback in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $93 per barrel, down $3.02 or 3.15% for the day. The international Brent benchmark was at $95.24, down $2.57. The Bakken crude differential—the discount at which local crude trades versus WTI—was $3.42, putting Bakken barrel prices near $89.58.

Historically, the rig count in North Dakota has shown a strong correlation with production trends several months later. A sustained increase in rigs typically leads to increased well completions and a subsequent rise in output, while a declining count often foreshadows a production plateau or decline. The current count of 27 rigs is substantially lower than the peak activity seen in previous boom cycles but represents a stabilization from the lows following the 2020 price crash.

At this drilling pace, analysts expect North Dakota's oil production to remain relatively flat in the near term, avoiding significant declines but lacking the momentum for robust growth. Operators appear to be balancing capital discipline with the need to maintain core acreage and offset natural production declines from existing wells.

The day's price volatility, while sharp, leaves benchmarks above levels that would likely trigger widespread drilling cuts. However, the sustained discount for Bakken crude, combined with higher regional operating costs compared to other basins, continues to pressure operator margins. Natural gas prices, trading at $3.35, provide a modest revenue stream for associated gas production but are not a primary driver for Bakken drilling decisions.

For royalty owners and service companies, the current environment suggests a period of predictability. Production volumes are likely to hold steady, supporting local tax revenues and midstream operations, without the rapid expansion or contraction that characterizes more volatile market phases.