Bakken Rig Count Holds at 27 as Oil Prices Surge Past $90

The active rig count in North Dakota held steady at 27 on Thursday as benchmark oil prices posted significant gains, providing a supportive but cautious backdrop for Bakken production. West Texas Intermediate crude surged $1.39 to settle at $90.07 per barrel, while the global Brent benchmark rose to $93.35, according to midday Bakken Wire data.

The price strength coincides with a relatively narrow discount for Bakken crude. The Bakken differential was reported at -$3.42 versus WTI, meaning local barrels are fetching prices near $86.65. This improved netback, combined with sustained high benchmarks, typically encourages operators to maintain drilling and completion activity for existing projects.

The current rig count of 27 represents a stable, baseline level of drilling activity in the formation. Historically, the rig count is a leading indicator of future oil production, with a lag of several months between when a well is spudded and when it begins contributing to output. A steady count suggests that after a period of modest increases, near-term production levels are likely to remain flat or see very gradual growth, barring significant changes in completion pace or well productivity.

The current operational tempo is a fraction of the boom-era highs, which saw over 200 rigs running in North Dakota, but reflects a disciplined focus on core, high-return acreage. Operators have prioritized efficiency and capital returns over volume growth in recent years, meaning sustained higher prices are necessary to justify meaningfully increasing the rig count.

Natural gas prices, often a secondary factor for Bakken producers focused on oil, were reported at $3.28 per MMBtu. While not a primary driver, sustained gas prices above the $3.00 level provide additional revenue support for wells, which produce associated gas.

The outlook for Bakken production hinges on the durability of current oil prices. If WTI remains anchored above $90, operators may slowly add a rig or two in the coming quarters to drill inventory in the core of the play. However, the muted rig count response to date suggests a continued emphasis on financial discipline, shareholder returns, and managing within existing operational plans. For now, the data points to a period of stability for North Dakota's oil output.