Bakken Rig Count Holds at 28 as Oil Prices Slide Sharply

North Dakota's oil industry is navigating a sharp decline in crude prices while maintaining its current drilling pace, according to live market data. The state's active rig count held steady at 28 on Tuesday, even as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $4.95 to settle at $75.39 per barrel.

The Bakken oil price differential, the discount at which local crude trades compared to the WTI benchmark, was $3.42. This puts the implied Bakken wellhead price at approximately $71.97. The global Brent crude benchmark also fell sharply, dropping $4.92 to $78.85. Natural gas prices were reported at $2.68 per MMBtu.

The stability of the rig count amid a price correction presents a key data point for the North Dakota production outlook. The rig count is a leading indicator of future oil output, as new wells drilled today will typically begin producing several months later. A sustained high count suggests operators are investing in maintaining or growing future production volumes.

Historically, movements in the rig count have followed trends in oil prices with a lag. Sustained periods of higher prices typically encourage operators to deploy more drilling rigs, while prolonged price downturns lead to rigs being idled. The current count of 28 rigs, while significantly lower than the boom-era highs, represents a level that has supported relatively stable production in the Bakken formation in recent years.

The immediate price shock, with WTI down over 6%, may test operator discipline if it persists. Companies may delay final investment decisions on new multi-well pads, which could affect the rig count and production volumes in the latter part of 2026 and into 2027. However, the current rig fleet's stability suggests a baseline of activity is being maintained.

For royalty owners and service companies in the Williston Basin, the focus will be on whether operators can sustain capital programs at these price levels. Production from existing wells will continue, but the trajectory of new well additions—and therefore overall state output—is closely tied to the active rig count. Market observers will watch for any changes to the rig number in the coming weeks as a signal of operator response to the new price environment.