Bakken Rig Count Holds at 29 as Oil Prices Rise

North Dakota's oil industry is maintaining a measured pace of drilling activity, with the active rig count holding at 29 as of midday Friday, August 7, according to live Bakken Wire data. This level of activity continues a multi-year trend of a significantly contracted drilling fleet compared to the boom-era highs.

The steady rig count unfolds against a backdrop of rising crude prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $78.38 per barrel, a gain of $1.09 or 1.41% on the day. The international Brent crude benchmark was at $83.73, up $1.24. The price for Bakken crude at the wellhead is typically discounted against WTI; the current Bakken differential is -$3.42 per barrel. Natural gas prices were reported at $2.67 per MMBtu.

Historically, the number of active drilling rigs is a leading indicator for future oil production in the Bakken formation, North Dakota's primary oil-producing region. It typically takes several months for new wells drilled by these rigs to be completed and begin contributing to state output. A rig count sustained in the high 20s to low 30s suggests that operators are focusing on efficiency and capital discipline, drilling only their highest-quality locations, rather than embarking on a rapid production growth campaign.

The current price environment, with WTI above $78, is generally considered supportive for Bakken operators. However, the muted rig count response indicates that companies are prioritizing shareholder returns and debt reduction over aggressive expansion. This discipline has been a hallmark of the post-2020 shale industry.

The sustained low rig count points to a likely stabilization or modest decline in North Dakota's oil production in the coming months, barring a significant and sustained jump in prices or a shift in corporate strategy. Production levels have been flat to slightly down through the first half of 2026, and the current activity level is not sufficient to reverse that trend without substantial gains in well productivity.

For royalty owners and service companies, the outlook remains one of steady, but not booming, activity. The focus for operators continues to be on generating free cash flow from existing assets and selective development of premium drilling inventory.