Bakken Rig Count Holds at 33 as Oil Prices Surge Past $87

North Dakota's Bakken formation showed signs of potential operational stability as the state's active rig count held at 33 on Thursday, August 20, 2026, against a backdrop of sharply higher crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged to $87.14 per barrel, a gain of $2.75, while the global Brent benchmark traded at $94.28.

The Bakken crude price differential—the discount at which local oil sells compared to the WTI benchmark—was recorded at $-3.42. This relatively narrow discount improves the netback for Bakken producers, making local production more competitive. Natural gas prices were reported at $2.75 per MMBtu.

The current rig count of 33, while unchanged in the latest data, remains near the lowest levels seen in the modern Bakken era, far below the peak of over 200 rigs running concurrently prior to the 2014 price crash. Historically, the rig count is a leading indicator of future oil production, with a typical lag of several months between a rig spudding a well and that well contributing to sustained output.

The sustained higher price environment, with WTI consistently above $85, provides a stronger economic incentive for operators to maintain and potentially increase drilling activity. However, the muted rig count response suggests continued capital discipline, with companies prioritizing free cash flow and shareholder returns over aggressive production growth.

For Bakken operators and royalty owners, the combination of strong headline prices and a tight differential is a positive signal for near-term revenues. The current dynamics may support a stabilization of the state's production, which has fluctuated around 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels per day in recent years. A significant production increase, however, would likely require a sustained period of high prices and a material increase in the drilling rig fleet.

The outlook for North Dakota production hinges on whether operators deem the current price deck sufficient to justify expanding drilling programs beyond maintenance levels. With 33 rigs active, the focus remains on efficiently drilling high-quality inventory in the core of the play to hold production flat.