Bakken Wire: Oil Eases as EU Energy Crisis, Trump Comments Frame Market

Crude benchmarks eased into Thursday morning, with WTI at $101.86, down $0.92, or 0.9%, and Brent at $110.54, down $1.10, or 0.99%, according to live price data. Natural gas was $3.02, down $0.01. The Bakken differential stood at -$3.42 versus WTI. Brent traded $8.68 above WTI.

The modest declines came against a tightening European energy backdrop. EU energy ministers were meeting Thursday to discuss a worsening energy price crisis as winter approaches and peak heating demand season begins, OilPrice.com reported. The report cited Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen as saying refinery closures in EU member states over the past 20 years were a mistake as a diesel squeeze pushed prices to all-time highs.

European gas prices have also been elevated. EU natural gas touched 100 euro per MWh on Wednesday, OilPrice.com reported. Jorgensen told media the EU is in “a very serious situation,” and warned against neglecting security of supply, according to OilPrice.com, which cited Reuters. Discussions may involve reducing electricity bills by cutting taxes and grid fees, and easing some technical requirements for refineries to encourage higher production, the report said.

Storage and LNG flows are adding pressure. The EU is entering winter with about 75% gas in storage, compared with more than 80% over the past five years, OilPrice.com reported. Rystad Energy analyst Mathieu Utting said LNG buyers were reducing purchases, with the total for the week to Oct. 9 down 30% from a year earlier. Utting warned Europe has less storage cushion than needed and fewer options to quickly replace disrupted supply, according to OilPrice.com.

Utting also said mild weather has kept heating demand subdued, but temperatures alone cannot reverse the continent’s vulnerability, particularly after energy prices were disturbed by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the report said.

In the U.S., commentary on high gas prices added another layer. Trump said high gas prices were a “short-term pain” for long-term gain at a rally in Corpus Christi, according to Rigzone. “Short-term pain, right, for long-term gain. You’re going to see very soon,” Trump said, according to Rigzone.

For Bakken operators and royalty owners, the market setup keeps attention on realizations rather than headline benchmarks alone. WTI-linked crude remains the pricing anchor for much of North Dakota output, and the -$3.42 Bakken differential versus WTI shows the basin’s barrels are trading below the benchmark. Natural gas at $3.02 is also relevant because Bakken production includes associated gas, making gas prices part of operator and royalty economics.

The Bakken formation is North Dakota’s primary oil-producing region, and basin output commonly prices against WTI. A negative differential means Bakken barrels are discounted to the benchmark, which can affect lease-level revenue for operators and royalty owners. The EU story is not directly setting Bakken prices, but it illustrates continued stress in global refined-product and gas markets, especially diesel.

For North Dakota producers, the combination of a high but slightly softer crude tape, the reported Bakken discount and a small natural gas decline creates a mixed backdrop for revenue planning as winter demand season begins. The factors matter for how basin revenue responds if the differential or natural gas price moves further.