Global Emissions Hit Record High as EU Rushes Russian Gas Before Ban

Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions reached another all-time high in 2025, rising to 41.0 billion metric tons, according to the Energy Institute's 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy. The report, published in partnership with Ember, KPMG, and Kearney, noted a 1.1% increase from 2024's 40.7 billion metric tons. Notably, North America accounted for 47.1% of the global emissions increase last year, despite representing only 15.6% of total worldwide emissions.

This rise occurred even as renewable electricity generation grew by roughly 861 terawatt-hours in 2025, more than covering the net global increase in power generation. Coal-fired generation fell and gas-fired generation rose only modestly, indicating the emissions growth is driven by broader factors including transportation, industrial activity, and fossil fuel production processes—a dynamic relevant to the oil and gas-intensive Bakken formation.

Meanwhile, European Union nations are accelerating imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) ahead of a full ban set for January 1, 2027. Data from Kpler shows the EU imported a record 9.97 million metric tons of LNG from Russia's Yamal facility in the first half of 2026, a 16% year-on-year increase. France, Belgium, and Spain are the largest buyers. This front-loading is driven by supply bottlenecks in the Middle East and exemptions in the EU's REPowerEU Gas Regulation, which banned short-term Russian LNG imports in April 2026 but allows continued intake ahead of the 2027 cutoff.

Concurrently, Russian refinery runs have plunged to their lowest level in more than 21 years due to a wave of Ukrainian attacks, according to Rigzone. This significant reduction in Russian refining capacity could tighten global supplies of refined products, potentially supporting margins for refiners processing Bakken crude.

For Bakken operators and North Dakota, these global trends present a mixed picture. The continued growth in global emissions, led in part by North America, underscores persistent demand for fossil fuels, providing a fundamental market for Bakken oil and gas. The EU's rush for Russian LNG before the 2027 ban may temporarily dampen European demand for alternative supplies, including U.S. LNG, which competes with associated gas from the Bakken. However, the impending complete ban creates a future market opportunity. The collapse in Russian refining activity may increase global competition for crude oil but could benefit Bakken producers if it leads to higher refined product prices and strengthens the value of the light, sweet crude typical of the Williston Basin.