Global LNG Growth Anchored by US Exports as Geopolitical Tensions Rattle Markets

Global LNG trade reached a record 437 million tons in 2025, growing 6.3% due largely to higher supply from the United States and Qatar, according to the International Gas Union's World LNG Report 2026 published Tuesday. The IGU reported this was the strongest annual growth since 2022, with the U.S. remaining the top LNG exporter.

For Bakken operators with significant gas production and gas processing assets, the sustained growth in U.S. LNG exports provides a critical long-term demand outlet. The report noted that 68.4 million tonnes per annum of new liquefaction capacity reached final investment decision in 2025, the strongest year for project approvals since 2019.

However, this growth faces immediate headwinds from geopolitical instability. The IGU stated that conflict in the Middle East has damaged LNG infrastructure, clouded the outlook for regional expansion projects, and exposed Asian buyers to flow uncertainty and higher prices. "The conflict in the Gulf has damaged LNG infrastructure... and exposed Asian buyers to flow uncertainty and higher prices," said Andrea Stegher, president of the IGU, according to the report carried by Reuters.

Simultaneously, oil markets are experiencing volatility that impacts Bakken crude pricing. Russia's flagship crude price has slid to levels seen before the recent Middle East conflict, Rigzone reported Monday. Furthermore, Ukraine struck three Russian refineries, including the country's biggest, in attacks on Sunday, according to a separate Rigzone report.

While these events directly affect global crude and refined product balances, the LNG industry is demonstrating resilience. The IGU concluded that the industry showed flexibility during the Middle East crisis not seen in previous supply crises, acting as a "shock absorber" to the global economy. Shell, in its own annual LNG Outlook last week, projected global LNG demand will rise 65% by 2050 from 2025 levels, driven by surging demand in South and Southeast Asia, though growth this year has been stalled by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

The juxtaposition of record LNG trade growth anchored by U.S. supply against ongoing refinery attacks and oil price movements creates a complex backdrop for Bakken operators. The strengthening U.S. LNG export sector offers a stabilizing demand pillar for the region's natural gas, even as crude markets react to geopolitical disruptions elsewhere.