Global Shipping Crisis Deepens as Dangote Refinery Shifts Flows, Geothermal Grows

The physical reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has failed to restore vital oil shipping lanes, with maritime traffic at times falling by 90% or more compared to normal levels, according to an OilPrice.com analysis. Despite announcements that the strait is open, real-time data from April 2026 shows traffic sometimes as low as three vessels per day, compared to a typical 120-140. The report states the core issue is a breakdown in trust and risk perception, not physical access, with war-risk insurance withdrawals effectively halting commercial navigation.

This protracted disruption has severely impacted hydrocarbon exports, with oil exports from core Gulf producers dropping by over 60% and millions of barrels pushed into floating storage. The situation mirrors the structurally depressed traffic in the Red Sea and Suez Canal following earlier crises, indicating a lasting rewiring of global shipping behavior. For Bakken operators, the ongoing closure of this key chokepoint continues to support a volatile global price environment and complicates long-haul export logistics.

Meanwhile, the 650,000 barrel-per-day Dangote refinery in Nigeria is running at 94% capacity, turning the country into a net gasoline exporter for the first time, OilPrice.com reported. In March, the refinery produced roughly 303,000 b/d of gasoline, covering domestic demand and exporting 55,000 b/d. This shift is altering Atlantic Basin crude flows, with the refinery sourcing significant volumes of U.S. crude, importing an average of 215,000 b/d of WTI Midland and WTI grades in February and March.

However, the report notes that with WTI crude increasingly pulled toward Asia-Pacific markets due to Middle East disruptions, availability is tightening. This has forced Dangote to seek alternative supplies, including a first-ever shipment of Guyanese crude to West Africa. For the Bakken, the rise of a major, flexible refinery competitor for WTI grades could influence pricing dynamics and market options for North Dakota's light sweet crude.

In U.S. energy developments, the geothermal sector is poised for expansion through enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), which use drilling technologies similar to those in fracking. According to OilPrice.com, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates the EGS resource in the Great Basin alone could offer 135 gigawatts of clean energy potential. The first U.S. EGS power generator is expected to launch in 2026.

While this represents a long-term diversification of the national energy mix, the immediate focus for North Dakota remains on hydrocarbon markets destabilized by the effective closure of key global trade arteries like the Strait of Hormuz. The reluctance of major shipping companies to transit the strait, despite its technical openness, underscores a sustained period of elevated risk and market dislocation.