Global Supply Disruptions Lift Oil Prices, Offer Support for Bakken Crude

Global oil prices rose sharply this week as renewed geopolitical risks disrupted supply flows, offering support for Bakken crude benchmarks. The ICE Brent crude benchmark was set to settle above $76 per barrel on Friday, July 10, a gain of $4 per barrel for the week, according to OilPrice.com.

The increase is attributed to a revived Middle East risk premium following renewed U.S.-Iran strikes. Traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz slowed toward a near-standstill, raising fears of supply disruptions. Concurrently, Russia announced a one-month ban on diesel exports, removing approximately 0.5 million barrels per day from the global market and sending European diesel prices to a 15-year high.

These disruptions overshadowed other market developments, including the International Energy Agency adjusting its 2026 demand drop expectations to 1 million barrels per day. The IEA maintained a bullish view for 2026, anticipating world oil supply to fall by 3.7 million barrels per day amid ongoing Middle East issues.

For Bakken operators, the price lift and tightened global supply provide a more favorable market backdrop. The direct impact on North Dakota is seen in the strengthened differential between global benchmarks like Brent and local Bakken prices at the Clearbrook hub. Higher global prices improve netbacks for exported crude and enhance the economics for well completions and drilling programs in the state.

The supply crisis extends beyond crude. Ukraine's sustained drone attacks on Russian refineries, including a major facility in Omsk, have plunged Central Asia into an energy crisis, highlighting global fuel fragility. This disruption underscores the value of stable, domestic production from regions like the Bakken, which supplies refined products to U.S. markets.

In other corporate news, Chevron, a major operator with significant Bakken assets, signed a new five-year agreement to supply 46 petajoules of natural gas to Australian utility Alinta, Rigzone reported. The company also faced operational challenges elsewhere, as a tanker it chartered, the Yasa Polaris, was attacked by a drone en route to a Russian port, forcing it to abandon its loading.

The current market volatility underscores the Bakken's role in a less predictable global energy landscape. While the immediate price move is supportive, long-term stability depends on the trajectory of Middle East tensions and the duration of Russian export policies.