Global Supply, Metal Tariffs, Colombia's Decline Shape Bakken Outlook
Analysts split on Hormuz recovery speed as Washington's copper tariff decision looms, while Colombia's reserve crisis underscores need for investment.
The pace of recovery in the Strait of Hormuz has become a key variable for global oil balances, with major forecasters disagreeing sharply on its near-term impact, according to a report from OilPrice.com. In their June updates, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and BloombergNEF narrowed their predicted 2026 global supply deficit to 900,000 barrels per day and 500,000 b/d, respectively—a significant reduction from forecasts of a 2 million b/d shortfall a month earlier. In contrast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration stated it does not expect a recovery to pre-war traffic levels before early 2027 and projects global oil inventories will fall by an average of 7.6 million b/d in the third quarter of 2026.
The confusion is reflected in price forecasts. The monthly Reuters poll for the 2026 Brent crude average fell to $84.5 per barrel in June, down $6 per barrel from May, suggesting analysts are reacting to events without clear direction, OilPrice.com reported. While all forecasters expect a supply glut in 2027, the current discrepancies in short-term outlooks are stark.
Beyond oil, base metals critical to industrial and oilfield activity are also in flux, though for different reasons. Copper prices reached $14,000 per ton in June, but its next major price driver now sits in Washington, not the Gulf, according to a separate OilPrice.com analysis. A U.S. Commerce Department review on June 30 was to advise President Trump on whether to impose a tariff on refined copper starting at 15% in January 2027, but the decision remains pending. Market strategists note lobbying against the tariff remains active, indicating the outcome is still contested.
Other metals showed varied performance in the first half of 2026. Zinc, largely insulated from the Gulf conflict, rose 14% on an unexpected global deficit outside China. Nickel prices tracked Indonesian mining quotas more than regional strife. Tin rose 27% on a structural supply squeeze, while lead fell 7% due to a surplus.
Meanwhile, a stark example of the consequences of underinvestment and policy uncertainty emerged from Colombia. The country's National Hydrocarbons Agency reported its proven (1P) oil reserves fell nearly 1% year-over-year in 2025 to just over 2 billion barrels, according to OilPrice.com. Proven and probable (2P) reserves fell 2%, and proved, possible, and probable (3P) reserves fell 3%. Production has declined to a multiyear low of 724,910 barrels per day in April 2026. Colombia's natural gas reserves plummeted even more sharply, with 1P reserves down 17% year-over-year to 1.7 trillion cubic feet.
The Colombian case, attributed to weak prices, geopolitical risk, and anti-petroleum reforms, highlights the direct link between investment, exploration, and long-term production stability—a relevant dynamic for all producing regions, including the Bakken.
Source
OilPrice.com reports from July 3, 2026: "Hormuz Turns Oil Outlooks Into a Guessing Game," "Copper's Next Move Depends On Washington, Not The Strait Of Hormuz," "Colombia's Oil and Gas Reserves Keep Shrinking."
