Global Supply Surplus Grows as Exports Rise, Pressuring Prices

Global oil supply is increasing, reinforcing a supply surplus that is keeping prices near multi-year lows, according to reports from Rigzone. This trend creates a more competitive market for Bakken crude, which must vie for buyers against a rising tide of international barrels.

TotalEnergies is offering millions of barrels of Iraqi crude that can be promptly delivered to Asia, traders told Rigzone. This adds immediate, seaborne supply to a key export market for U.S. producers, including those in North Dakota who ship crude to Asian refiners.

Concurrently, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports have surged close to their pre-war levels, Rigzone separately reported. The increase comes as the kingdom successfully moves more tankers through the critical Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint for Middle Eastern supply reaching the global market.

These rising exports have reinforced concerns about a growing global supply surplus, Rigzone noted. Oil prices have steadied but remain near the lows seen before the recent regional conflict, limiting revenue potential for Bakken operators.

For the Williston Basin, the expanding global surplus means intensified competition in every market. Bakken crude, which already trades at a discount to international benchmarks, must remain competitively priced to maintain its export flows. Sustained low prices could pressure wellhead economics and potentially slow the pace of development drilling in North Dakota.