Goldman Warns of Renewed Hormuz Disruption, Reversing Glut Forecast

Investment bank Goldman Sachs has reversed its warning of a coming oil glut, now stating that renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf threaten an extended supply disruption, according to a report from OilPrice.com. This shift highlights the extreme volatility in global supply forecasts that directly impacts the pricing environment for Bakken crude.

The bank's commodity analysts said that while Middle Eastern producers have recently reopened shut-in wells, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz "could slow down the production recovery." They noted that Middle East oil production remains 10.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. The recent attacks on tankers have led to a drop in oil flows through the critical chokepoint from a recovered 80% of pre-war levels down to 70%, with Bloomberg reporting no observable tanker traffic in the strait except for one U.S.-sanctioned vessel.

This represents a stark reversal from Goldman's position just last week, when it predicted a massive market glut next year as Hormuz traffic appeared to normalize. The analysts now warn that "shippers may hesitate to cross under the currently unclear ceasefire status, weighing on near-term Hormuz flows." For Bakken producers, this renewed supply risk provides potential price support, countering previous forecasts of a price-crushing surplus.

The global inventory situation adds another layer of complexity. According to the source, stockpiles of crude and refined products in many parts of the world are at multi-decade lows after governments released strategic reserves in March. This depletion followed the Middle East crisis, which trapped millions of barrels of daily flows in the Persian Gulf. The process of refilling these inventories could sustain demand for non-OPEC supplies, including Bakken crude.

In a separate development underscoring the restructuring of global energy flows, Rigzone reported that the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has secured a 15-year deal to supply 1 million metric tons per annum of LNG to Japanese company INPEX. ADNOC stated that nearly 23 percent of its Ruwais LNG's 9.6 MMtpa capacity has now been offtaken by Japanese customers.

While this LNG deal does not directly involve crude, it signals continued long-term investment and contract locking by major Middle Eastern producers in the face of regional instability. For the Bakken, a stable or tightening global crude supply picture driven by persistent Gulf disruptions reduces the near-term threat of a severe price downturn, but maintains the market's exposure to geopolitical shocks that can drive rapid price swings.