Hormuz Closes, Oil Prices Spike as U.S.-Iran Conflict Re-Ignites

The vital Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to commercial shipping after the United States and Iran resumed exchanging strikes, according to reports from OilPrice.com. This abrupt halt in tanker traffic has reversed a recent downward trend in oil prices and poses a renewed threat to global energy supplies, with direct implications for Bakken crude pricing and market stability.

As of Thursday, July 9, vessel-tracking data showed only one sanctioned tanker moving through the waterway, a stark contrast to the 14 commodity-carrying vessels that traversed the strait on Wednesday. According to OilPrice.com, data from Kpler showed that in the three weeks following a prior ceasefire, the strait saw an average of 34 tanker crossings per day. At least four oil and LNG tankers made U-turns from the chokepoint on Wednesday.

The U.S. military confirmed early Thursday that CENTCOM forces conducted additional strikes against Iran to degrade its ability to attack commercial shipping. Iran said it retaliated with strikes at Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. A U.S. official told Axios, as reported by OilPrice.com, that the administration is prepared for an escalation "that could last from a day or two to multiple weeks" to force Iran to back down.

The immediate market impact has been a spike in oil prices, reversing predictions of a glut that had emerged during the brief period of resumed traffic. This volatility directly affects the price realizations for Bakken producers, who compete in a global crude market sensitive to supply disruptions at major chokepoints.

The closure is also severely disrupting global LNG flows. Pakistan was forced to issue an emergency tender for a spot LNG cargo for July 15-16 delivery after the hostilities led to the cancellation of a cargo from Qatar, OilPrice.com reported. This marks a return to the supply crises seen earlier this year when traffic through Hormuz first halted, leading to production shutdowns at Qatar's massive LNG export facilities.

The situation remains fluid. President Trump claimed on Thursday that Iran had contacted the U.S. wanting "to make a deal," according to OilPrice.com. However, Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, posted that "the Strait of Hormuz will only open with 'Iranian arrangements,' not American threats."

For North Dakota operators, the renewed blockade underscores the persistent geopolitical risk premium embedded in global oil prices. The standstill at Hormuz, a conduit for about one-fifth of global oil consumption, ensures continued market tightness and price support, but also introduces significant volatility as traders react to each military development.