Hormuz Thaw Could Spike Brent to $151, JPMorgan Warns

Chinese tankers have resumed transit through the critical Strait of Hormuz under the coordination of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to Iranian state media. OilPrice.com reported that around 30 Chinese vessels have been granted safe passage, marking a significant development in the long-standing blockade of the key oil chokepoint.

The move follows a diplomatic agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during Trump's state visit to China. Both leaders agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open for the free flow of energy and that no country should be allowed to exact shipping tolls there, OilPrice.com reported.

The resumption began with a key milestone on Wednesday, May 13, when a Chinese supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude successfully passed through the strait after being stranded for over two months. According to OilPrice.com, the Cosco Shipping tanker, the Yuan Hua Hu, transited through the northern corridor controlled by the IRGC and did not pay tolls, which can average $2 million per vessel.

Should this trajectory continue toward a full reopening, the price implications for global benchmarks—and consequently for Bakken crude—could be severe. Rigzone reported that J.P. Morgan has warned Brent crude could average as much as $151 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year if the Strait of Hormuz reopens on September 1.

The prolonged closure of the strait has already created an elevated price environment with global consequences. Rigzone reported that Meren, a Canadian company producing in Nigeria, saw its first-quarter financial losses deepen due to a hedging charge of $37.2 million, a direct result of the price volatility induced by the Middle East war and strait closure.

For Bakken operators and royalty owners, these developments underscore the extreme sensitivity of wellhead economics to geopolitical events half a world away. A sustained march toward $150 Brent would dramatically improve cash flows for North Dakota's producers, though it would also test the basin's capacity to ramp up activity in a tight service sector. The potential for a sudden price surge later this year, as forecast by JPMorgan, adds a new layer of strategic consideration for hedging and capital planning.