ND Rig Count Holds at 26 as Oil Prices Rise, Stabilizing Production Outlook

North Dakota's active rig count held steady at 26 this week, according to Bakken Wire data, as oil prices posted gains. The count continues to reflect a historically low level of drilling activity in the Bakken formation.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $71.46 per barrel on Thursday, up $1.12 or 1.59% from the previous session. The international benchmark Brent crude traded at $75.03, a gain of $1.16. The Bakken crude differential was $3.42 below WTI, pricing local barrels at approximately $68.04.

The rig count is a leading indicator of future oil production, as each active drilling rig represents new wells that will come online months later. A sustained count in the mid-20s suggests that North Dakota's oil output is likely to remain flat or see only marginal growth in the coming quarters, absent a significant increase in activity.

The current price environment, while improved, may not yet be compelling enough for a widespread ramp-up in drilling. Many Bakken operators require higher sustained prices to justify accelerating development programs, especially with ongoing focus on capital discipline and shareholder returns.

Historically, North Dakota's rig count has fluctuated dramatically with commodity cycles. It peaked above 200 in 2012 during the height of the shale boom and plummeted below 20 during the price crashes of 2016 and 2020. The current level, while low, represents a stabilization from the extreme volatility of the past decade.

Natural gas prices, often a secondary driver for Bakken activity where gas is associated with oil production, were at $3.27 per MMBtu.

The steady rig count indicates operators are maintaining a baseline of activity to hold leases and manage decline rates from existing wells, rather than aggressively pursuing growth. For royalty owners and service companies, the outlook remains one of modest, stable activity tied closely to weekly oil price movements.