North Dakota Rig Count Holds at 23 as Oil Prices Retreat

North Dakota's active drilling rig count held steady at 23 on Saturday, May 2, 2026, as high but volatile crude oil prices continue to set the stage for Bakken production trends. The current rig level, while up significantly from lows seen earlier in the decade, remains far below the boom-era peaks, pointing to a continued focus on capital discipline and efficiency by operators.

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $101.94 per barrel, according to midday data, representing a sharp daily drop of $3.13. Brent crude also fell to $108.17. The Bakken crude differential—the discount at which local crude trades versus the WTI benchmark—was $3.42. Natural gas prices were at $2.78 per MMBtu.

Historically, the rig count is a leading indicator for future oil production, with a typical lag of several months between drilling activity and new wells coming online. The current count of 23 rigs suggests that North Dakota's oil output, which had been stabilizing near 1.2 million barrels per day in recent months, is unlikely to see a significant surge in the near term. The state's production has become less sensitive to rig count fluctuations due to technological advances, with operators drilling longer lateral wells and completing them with more intensive fracking designs to extract more oil per rig.

The elevated global oil prices, despite the day's pullback, provide a fundamental economic support for ongoing drilling and completion activity in the Williston Basin. However, the sustained lower rig count compared to historical levels indicates that operators are prioritizing free cash flow and shareholder returns over aggressive production growth.

Industry analysts note that the Bakken's outlook is shaped by this balance of strong commodity revenues and disciplined spending. The current price environment makes drilling profitable, but companies are contending with rising costs for labor, steel, and services. The sharp daily drop in crude prices also highlights the market volatility that can influence short-term operational decisions.

For royalty owners and service companies in North Dakota, the plateaued rig count suggests a steady but not expanding level of field activity. The focus for Bakken operators remains on maximizing recoveries from core acreage and managing their drilled but uncompleted (DUC) well inventories, rather than launching large-scale new drilling campaigns.