Oil Prices Hold Steady as Geopolitical Factors Counterbalance

Front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were virtually unchanged in midday trading Wednesday, May 13, 2026, holding above $102 per barrel. WTI traded at $102.19, up a marginal one cent. The international benchmark Brent crude fell 1.13% to $106.55, according to live price data.

The price stability comes amid continued tight global supplies due to the ongoing war involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical premium is helping to offset typical market pressures, keeping Bakken crude competitive. The Bakken differential to WTI was recorded at -$3.42 per barrel.

A key supportive factor is a surge in Russian oil revenues, which highlights how high prices are compensating for lost production elsewhere. According to a report from OilPrice.com citing the International Energy Agency, Russia's oil export revenues hit $19.18 billion in April 2026, a $6.28 billion increase from April 2025. This occurred despite Russia's total output falling by 460,000 barrels per day to 8.8 million bpd, as Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted refineries and ports.

The report notes that a temporary U.S. sanctions waiver on Russian oil cargoes, recently extended through May 16, has helped manage price volatility by keeping some supply on the market. Russia has also offset some losses via a 36% surge in pipeline exports, including resumed flows to Hungary and Slovakia.

Analysts are beginning to issue updated guidance after a period of withholding forecasts due to market uncertainty. J.P. Morgan published its first oil price forecast in two months, Rigzone reported. The bank had refrained from publishing targets since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict, indicating the extreme volatility and unpredictability that has characterized the market.

For Bakken operators, the current price environment remains favorable. WTI above $100 per barrel, coupled with a historically narrow discount for Bakken crude, supports strong wellhead economics and cash flow. The steady pricing suggests that the global supply disruptions, particularly the choked flows from the Strait of Hormuz, are providing a durable floor for prices. This allows North Dakota producers to plan drilling and completion activity with greater revenue certainty in the near term.

Natural gas prices also saw a slight increase, trading at $2.88 per MMBtu, up three cents.