Oil Prices Steady as China's Refiner Shift Highlights Supply Concerns

Global oil benchmarks were mixed in early Thursday trading, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude holding steady near $75 per barrel. WTI was priced at $75.2, down 2 cents, while the international benchmark Brent crude edged up 19 cents to $79.64, according to live price data. North Dakota's Bakken crude traded at a discount of $3.42 per barrel to WTI.

The relative price stability belies ongoing supply chain tensions that are reshaping global crude flows. According to a report from OilPrice.com, China’s top refiner, Sinopec, has significantly increased purchases of Russian Far East crude for the third quarter. The state-run giant has acquired 30-40 shipments, or 241,000 to 320,000 barrels per day, of Russia's ESPO blend for delivery between July and September.

Analysts cited by OilPrice.com indicate the move is a strategic pivot toward supply certainty. "Rather than broad-based import growth, demand is shifting towards barrels with greater delivery certainty and lower freight costs - primarily... short-haul Russian Far East cargoes," said Emma Li, a lead China analyst with Vortexa. ESPO crude from Russia's Kozmino port reaches China's east coast in about a week, offering a faster and cheaper alternative to longer-haul barrels from West Africa, Brazil, and the constrained Middle East.

This shift underscores the persistent risks to Middle Eastern supply that continue to underpin global prices. The report notes that Sinopec and other Chinese refiners had suspended Russian purchases in late 2025 due to U.S. sanctions but resumed them in March 2026 as the Iran war trapped Middle Eastern oil in the Gulf and the U.S. waived sanctions on Russian crude sales. With China easing some fuel export restrictions, a rebound in its crude imports is possible, but the immediate strategy favors secure, short-haul supplies.

For Bakken operators, the flat WTI price and steady natural gas price of $2.69 provide a stable, if not robust, near-term revenue environment. The widening Bakken differential to -$3.42 versus WTI indicates a slight softening in the local market's value relative to the benchmark, which could pressure netbacks. The broader market narrative of major consumers securing non-Middle Eastern supplies reinforces the competitive global landscape for crude. While not directly displacing Bakken barrels, China's pivot to Russian crude highlights the premium placed on logistics and supply security, factors that influence the relative pricing of inland crudes like those produced in North Dakota.